2024 Week 8 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 8 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

In the 4 team CFP era, there were at most 1 mulligan per team.  Often times, a bad loss could take a team out of the race entirely.  Sometimes the loss didn’t even need to be bad, just at the wrong time in the season.  Florida State didn’t even need to lose last year to be left out, they just had bad injury luck.  There have been 23 teams afforded a mulligan in the 4-team format.  There have been 10 teams left out despite having 1 or fewer losses.  Here are those power conference teams and the result not forgiven:

• 2024 – Florida State – Unbeaten but playing a 3rd string QB

• 2024 – Georgia – Loss to 12-1 Alabama in the SEC Title Game

• 2024 – Ohio State – Loss to 13-0 Michigan

• 2021 – Notre Dame – Loss to 13-0 Cincinnati

• 2020 – Several – Covid

• 2018 – Ohio State – Loss to 6-6 Purdue

• 2017 – Wisconsin – Loss to 11-2 Ohio State in the Big Ten Title Game

• 2015 – Iowa – Loss to 12-1 Michigan State in the Big Ten Title Game

• 2015 – Ohio State – Loss to 12-1 Michigan State

• 2014 – Baylor – Loss to 7-5 West Virginia

• 2014 – TCU – Loss to 11-1 Baylor

How many teams have made the CFP with 2 or more losses?  Zero!  That will change this season with the expanded format, but it remains the case that zero teams have carried a top 4 resume with 2 losses in the CFP era.  Why are we on the topic?  In a complete shock, Alabama seems impervious to what should be killer losses as the Tide remain comfortably in the top 3 of our week 8 rankings.  This means that if the playoffs were today, and we were still in the 4-team era, per our resume data Alabama would merit serious consideration for a bid.  This seems totally counter intuitive, considering Alabama lost at Vanderbilt, barely survived South Carolina, and then lost again at Tennessee.  How could the Tide possibly still be in the top 4 following a series of poor performances?  In week 7, Alabama rated as the 3rd strongest team according to our composite team strength ratings, and carried the 3rd strongest raw resume, even with the Vanderbilt loss.  Following the loss to Tennessee, Alabama has fallen to 5th both in strength and raw resume, but when put together Alabama’s overall resume still remains ahead of all but Georgia and Oregon, just as in week 7.  Alabama is the only team in the country with 3 great wins, denoted as a win with greater than 50 points of raw resume value, and it’s the great wins that at this point in the season appear to have bought Alabama a second mulligan on overall resume, whether the public acknowledges it or not.

Quick Hitters:

• Is it time to revisit our perception of the Texas Longhorns?  The computers are still super high on Texas, but in review, the raw resume for the Longhorns is suddenly lacking any real punch as Michigan fades from relevancy and as Oklahoma takes another thrashing.  This week Georgia rolls into town and lights up the Texas offense with a masterful defensive performance, leading to a 23-0 lead that turned into a 30-15 victory.  Texas gets a feisty Vanderbilt next, followed by several mid-tier SEC teams before an end of season showdown with Texas A&M.  If the Longhorns don’t run the schedule from here, and if Michigan and Oklahoma continue to fade, the raw resume at end of season could hold UT back quite a bit in our resume rankings.

• Are BYU or Iowa State teams of destiny?  The weekend results are of that nature, as both teams scored go ahead touchdowns inside of a minute to play to remain unbeaten and atop the Big 12 standings.  Last week we had Iowa State ahead on overall resume, but it seems it’s BYU stepping ahead this week, comfortably into our top 5.  Iowa State has regressed on team strength and remains in a tight race for the CFP.  Iowa State drops a bit in part because of the surprising Iowa loss to Michigan State which hurts the raw resume.

Let’s take a look at the Week 8 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• There is a real and meaningful gap between the CFP contenders and the rest of the field at this point in the season.  The gap between #1 Georgia and #14 Texas A&M is effectively the same as #14 Texas A&M to #19 Ole Miss, with Indiana, SMU, Clemson and Pitt floating in the void of contender/pretender land.  It’s the largest gape we’ve seen this season and presents a clear hurdle for any of the 2 loss teams below to cross.  There is a very strong chance that all eventual CFP At Large bid teams are already above this threshold.  Teams below likely need to win a conference to make the CFP.

• Speaking of the At Large bids, the boundary between In and Out is unbelievably small.  The delta between #8 Texas and #14 Texas A&M is a mere 2.6 in our overall resume ratings.  The margin for Penn State (In) and Notre Dame (Out) is 0.15.  Notably out of the CFP at this point is the strongest team in the country, Ohio State.

• We talked about Alabama earlier with the disparate resume vs public perception, but the other teams in the mix that are at least 5 places too low in the AP are BYU and Kansas State.  The Big 12 seems to get no love in the AP rankings, but the resume math doesn’t lie, with both BYU and Kansas State sitting comfortably within the Top 7.

• Looking ahead, the winner of LSU and Texas A&M will likely solidify a CFP worthy resume, as well as sit in our SEC Auto Bid spot next week.  Penn State will either take a step forward off of the At large boundary or will fall into the unknown void between contender and pretender.  Also be on the lookout for Notre Dame to take a step forward with a win over Navy, or we’ll see the Midshipmen take a plunge on raw resume.  Ohio State is likely to remain on the At Large boundary even with a huge win given Nebraska’s degradation in recent weeks.

Unexpected results from Week 8 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

With Texas projected at this point to win a home rematch, Georgia’s win Saturday qualifies as the second largest upset of the weekend behind a Big 12 shocker where Baylor routed Texas Tech in Lubbock effectively ending the Red Raiders CFP At Large hopes.  The conference title is still within reach, but the margin is now paper thin.

With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?

LSU now steps in as the presumptive SEC Champion holding the highest resume for a team tied for the lead in the loss column in conference play.  In the Big 12, BYU steps ahead of Iowa State to take an Auto Bid as well.  In the first round we get some great matchups, including the battle for the real UT and a Farmageddon rematch.  In terms of bracket luck, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th strongest teams in the country end up on the same side, and with the strongest team (Ohio State) absent it means the national title game is guaranteed to field a team rated 5th or worse on team strength.  Tough luck to Tennessee, the 8th strongest team, who would need to beat Texas (2nd), Oregon (4th) and likely Georgia (3rd) just for a chance to play for the title.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 9 games worth watching

Top Game:

• It’s a battle of unbeaten teams (in conference play) in the SEC.  The winner of Texas A&M and LSU would have the inside track to the SEC Title Game, and we project this game as a true pick ‘em!  The Aggies have the advantage playing at home, but LSU is no pushover.  This should be a fantastic game!

• The top Group of 5 game will be played on Friday night with UNLV hosting Boise State.  The winner of this one controls their destiny for the Mountain West and probably the CFP unless Army or Navy run the table.  This is the 3rd best game on our game quality metric for the entire weekend!

• Looking for an upset?  There is only a 29.1% chance Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Indiana, BYU, and Oregon all win this weekend.  All project as double digit favorites, but odds are one or more are going down!

That’s all we have for the Week 8.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)