2025 Week 14 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome back to the 2025 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

It’s time for the Week 14 CFP Committee Rankings reveal after another action-packed week of football!  It is the end of the regular season for the majority of teams, and if historical precedence holds many teams not playing for a conference title will be locked into a bubble position this week, so it is a HUGE ranking release from the committee.   Let’s jump right into our rankings and see what has changed, then compare to the new committee rankings.

Week 14 CFP Resume Rankings

Week 14 Movers:

• Texas A&M took their first and only loss of the regular season on Friday at Texas, and while they plummeted in the committee rankings the drop here was only by a spot to Oregon.  Both Georgia and Alabama failed to demonstrate superior strength in week 14 wins, and while Texas A&M saw both a hit to the raw resume and to the team strength rating, the gap they had coming into the week was a strong enough buffer to keep the Aggies steady at #4.

• The computers really enjoyed the Texas Tech performance, and the Red Raiders have successfully elevated beyond the resume bubble as a result, jumping ahead of Oklahoma who also did not play well in a win over LSU.

• Ole Miss slides ahead of BYU, by a small margin, for the final Resume At Large bid, meaning that BYU on resume does need to win the Big 12 title to earn a bid for the CFP.  This bubble comparison is not really on the table for the committee given Ole Miss’s relative ranking to Oklahoma and Alabama due to Head-to-Head results.

• The Texas CFP case continues to struggle on merit, with the Longhorn’s resume only climbing 2 spots after the upset win over Texas A&M.  The Texas ranking relative to Utah is actually generous, and is likely due to an elevation of Texas over Vanderbilt on Head-to-Head results. It is unlikely that any set of results this weekend would open the door for Texas to make the CFP, so it is a moot point, but if there were two spots available for Texas, Vanderbilt, and Utah, Utah would deserve to be in on resume over Texas, and our belief is that H2H results if applied should pull an elevated team back in line rather than elevate a lesser resume ahead in line.

CFP Committee Rankings

1) Ohio State

2) Indiana

3) Georgia

4) Texas Tech

5) Oregon

6) Ole Miss

7) Texas A&M

8) Oklahoma

9) Alabama

10) Notre Dame

11) BYU

12) Miami

13) Texas

14) Vanderbilt

15) Utah

16) USC

17) Virginia

18) Arizona

19) Michigan

20) Tulane

21) Houston

22) Georgia Tech

23) Iowa

24) North Texas

25) James Madison

NOT Ranked by CFP Committee Rankings

Duke

UNLV

Boise State

Instant Analysis

• Question: Will Texas A&M fall to the back of the 1-loss line in the top 7?

• Answer: Yes!  The Aggies may have a top 4 worthy resume, but the recency of their loss certainly weighed on the committee as the Aggies fell behind our 10^th strongest resume team Ole Miss.

• Question: Will Miami close the gap on Notre Dame after a strong performance in Week 14 against a common opponent with Notre Dame?

• Answer: Yes, though not enough to apply Head-to-Head results in the rankings.  This leaves us to wonder if Texas Tech defeats BYU in the Big 12 title game, and Miami slides ahead of BYU, if Miami will move ahead of Notre Dame for potentially the final CFP bid.  The committee has shown in the past to not alter team relative rankings when neither play on conference championship weekend.  If it is for the final CFP position, it’s hard to imagine the committee not evaluating the Head-to-Head result as a tie breaker in the ranking process.  Of course, one way for this conundrum to resolve is if Alabama and BYU win their respective conferences and Georgia remains ahead, it’s likely that neither of these teams will make the field.

• Question: Can Texas elevate into the CFP mix despite 3-losses?

• Answer: No, the Longhorns have elevated in front of Vanderbilt, whom Texas soundly defeated earlier this season, but remain behind Miami who figures to be the lowest team not playing for a conference title with any hope of making the CFP.

• Question: If North Texas and James Madison win their conferences, who is in position to make the CFP?

• Answer: By finally ranking both teams, the committee has ruled in favor of North Texas, and if both win it will be North Texas defeating a ranked opponent and likely remaining ahead.  There is a possibility that both the American champion and James Madison can make the CFP if Duke can win the ACC title over Virginia.  If Duke claims the ACC and Troy upsets James Madison, the Blue Devils would have serious consideration over the Mountain West champion on resume for the final CFP bid.

Top 10 Unexpected Results of the Season

The Cal upset win over SMU, preventing the Mustangs from a shot at the ACC title and the CFP, registers as the Week 14 top upset, but it doesn’t crack our top 10 of the season, with Syracuse upsetting Clemson nearly doubling the next strongest upset of the season in our Upset Rating scale.  With Clemson rallying for a 7-5 finish with 4 wins in a row to close the season, and with Syracuse not winning a single game after the Clemson upset took the Orange to 3-1 on the season, this result is truly stunning in all ways.  What an incredible upset!

Week 15 Game of the Week

• CFP No. 1 Ohio State vs CFP No. 2 Indiana:

We rate games on a 0-100 scale where the best game of the season in terms of game quality comes out at 100.  This week we get a rare 100 game, with the power rated #1 Ohio State Buckeyes facing off against the power rated #2 Indiana Hoosiers.  What do the computers think?  19 of the 30 contributing models have Ohio State at #1, and 12 have Indiana at #1.  That’s more than 30 votes you say?  It sure is!  Even some of the models can’t decide between these two teams and vote both at joint #1.  We have this game as a true pick ‘em with Ohio State projected to win 50.7% of the time.  This could be a game with the Heisman on the line, and certainly will determine the top CFP seed, so it is a massive game for both teams!

Top Models for Week 14: The Models that Beat Our Composite

• Rams (https://ramsrating.com/ncaa-fb/)

• Sorensen (https://sorensen.info/rankings/)

• Splunty (https://misteroosh.wixsite.com/splunty/blog)

• (Close) FEI (https://www.bcftoys.com/)

• (Close) Kelley Ford (https://kfordratings.com/power)

Looking ahead at likely resumes for Week 15

• The Ohio State/Indiana winner will certainly be the #1 seed, and on resume the loser should remain the #2 seed ahead of Oregon and the SEC Champion

• Texas A&M, the SEC Championship loser, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss should all be safe on resume with no game to play

• The Big 12 Champion will certainly be in, and while in real life Texas Tech is likely in with a loss, on resume the loser of this game by the smallest of margins may miss out on the CFP

• In the Auto Bid wars Virginia certainly has the upper hand on resume, despite not rating as a stronger team than either North Texas or James Madison, and the American champion is likely a CFP lock

• Should Troy win the Sun Belt and Duke win the ACC, the Blue Devils on resume would deserve to be in ahead of an 11-2 UNLV team, the next strongest potential G5 resume

• The only path for Miami is a H2H flip over Notre Dame, and there appears to be no path for Texas, Vanderbilt, or Utah as expected

That’s a wrap for Week 14! If you have questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or want to follow along, find us @CFPResumeRanks on X. Our DMs are open for inquiries or partnership opportunities. Have a great week, and let’s see what Week 15 brings!

[Note: For tables instead of graphics, visit our resume rankings page at https://cfpresumerankings.wixsite.com/cfpresumerankings/cfp-resume-rankings]