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Welcome to the 2024 Week 7 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
After the abundance of high-profile upsets in week 6, if seemed like week 7 was close to delivering once again, but unlike in week 6, this past weekend we saw top rated teams survive the upset over and over. First it was Alabama surviving a 2-point conversion attempt and then a successful onside kick to secure a 2-point win over South Carolina. Then it was Penn State surviving an overtime affair with USC in the coliseum. Tennessee came out on top in an overtime game with unranked Florida, Kansas State survived a road game in Boulder to Colorado, unbeaten Pitt survived Cal, and Illinois survived an overtime upset bid from lowly Purdue.
None of the 3 ranked “upsets” were particularly surprising either. #3 Oregon beat #2 Ohio State by the smallest of margins, #13 LSU beat #9 Ole Miss in overtime at home, and 1-loss Arizona State upended #16 Utah at home by a score. The lack of upsets doesn’t mean the week wasn’t packed full of excitement. It was a great week for the sport! If every single week for the rest of the season were on par with the past 2 weeks, well, the 2024 season would match the level of exciting and close results from the 2007 season. Last week we compared the upsets observed in 2024 with those realized in 2007. We are off pace after a slow weekend, but in terms of exciting results, this season is still in the ballpark.
Quick Hitters:
What is the shelf life on Brent Venables? Oklahoma looked dreadful again on offense, and while Venables is known as a defensive coach, the Longhorns settled on Saturday and eventually did whatever they wanted in a Red River Rout. Reality is facing Oklahoma in the SEC as an injured and/or unprepared team seems unlikely to contend in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Texas seems to be the class of the conference, if not the nation. Georgia comes to town next week in another massive game for the season!
In the Big Ten, Oregon came out on top of Ohio State by the slimmest of margins. The margin was just a single point, but the reality was even tighter. Ohio State was literally 1 second, maybe even a half second away from getting a kick for the win. Credit to Oregon for the huge home win. With Penn State still needing to navigate Ohio State, Oregon is in the poll position to play for the Big Ten title.
Penn State passed a big test on Saturday, winning in Los Angeles against USC to move to 6-0. Against Power 4 competition, the Nittany Lions had given up 7, 11, and 12 points against Illinois, UCLA and West Virginia. The only team to force Penn State to put up points to win was Bowling Green. Against USC, Penn State needed a late touchdown and USC interception just to push the game to overtime at 30 apiece. In the 33-30 win, Penn State proved for the first time that they could score when needed, though USC’s defense is still a question mark after a dreadful 2023 campaign and inconsistent first half of 2024. Against other Big Ten heavyweights, Penn State is likely to need similar offensive execution, which has been the Achillies heel in past seasons.
Following the upset loss to Vanderbilt and a shaky end to the South Carolina game, all goodwill earned from the home win over Georgia has evaporated for Alabama. The Crimson Tide are fading in the AP poll only 2 weeks after taking the top spot. Alabama will not survive a similar standard with Tennessee, Missouri and LSU coming up on the schedule.
Speaking of Tennessee, the Volunteers are in similar standing with the Crimson Tide at this point. The good will from a dominant start to the season has long since faded away, as has the offensive output. Tennessee is fortunate to have survived an overtime scare to Florida. Alabama and Georgia will require better if Tennessee wants a shot at the SEC title or the CFP.
Ole Miss had such high expectations this season, but it’s not the first time in the Kiffin era that the Rebels have been unable to clear the strongest hurdles on the schedule when playing as a highly ranked team. The overtime loss to LSU all but eliminates Ole Miss from SEC contention. CFP contention is also low odds with Georgia still left to play and minimal resume value from the season wins. 9-3 Ole Miss would not earn an at-large CFP bid.
Let’s take a look at the Week 7 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
Let’s start with the elephant in the room, or more aptly near the top of the rankings. While Texas and Oregon at #1 and #2 are not a surprise, Alabama’s continued hold of the #3 spot ahead of #4 Georgia may come as a surprise to some. Alabama has looked weak in their past 2 games, but the computers still see the Tide as the 3rd strongest team, albeit by a narrow margin. The blowout over Wisconsin and performance against Georgia put enough distance between Alabama and the field that the Vandy loss and close call with South Carolina has led to regression, but not what the AP voters perceive. Alabama also still has the 3rd strongest raw resume, and that’s with the loss to Vanderbilt. The win over Georgia remains one of the premier results of the season.
Once we slide past the 1-loss SEC teams, we find ourselves not at Penn State, Ohio State or Miami, as the AP Poll shows, but instead at a pair of Big 12 teams in Iowa State and BYU, both undervalued by voters. BYU continues to hold a top 2 raw resume, and Iowa State now is in the top 10 on both strength and raw resume. Why is Iowa State ahead of Penn State on both team strength and raw resume? How does BYU squeeze between? Let’s take a look.
Iowa State and Penn State are super close on both strength and raw resume, with Iowa State ahead on both by small margins. The Cyclones win at Iowa rates better than Penn State’s win at USC this past weekend, and the rest of the resume is comparable. The rating models show a larger dispersion with Iowa State, which happens as models adjust to unexpected strength independently, but in aggregate Iowa State is ahead there as well. BYU sits in the middle, rating as a weaker team but with greater value in their collection of wins than both. The margin on team strength is close enough that the superior raw resume allows unbeaten BYU to also elevate above the Nittany Lions.
Why are we so cold on AP #10 Clemson? Take a look at the raw resume below. Clemson currently lacks a single quality win, defined as a win with game value of 30 or greater. Looking at the remainder of the schedule, there is virtually no opportunity for a great win, so in order to stay in the game on raw resume the Tigers are going to have to win out and hope to make the ACC conference title game.
Unexpected results from Week 7 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
Maryland? Ouch! Also, both Ole Miss and Ohio State would project as winners in a rematch. Given how close both were to winning that checks out for now.
With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?
This week’s title favorite is again the Texas Longhorns at >30% odds to win the title. What is the most likely title game? #1 Texas vs #2 Oregon. No surprise. What’s the second most likely title game? Texas vs Iowa State!
Now let’s highlight a few Week 8 games worth watching
Top Game:
Texas hosting Georgia will get top billing this weekend from the national media, but our -10.5 spread for the Longhorns opens the door for Tennessee vs Alabama to take the top spot on game quality. We have Alabama at -2.5 in this one. Also keep an eye on Miami at Louisville. Miami’s last 2 games were both wild affairs with the Hurricanes surviving major upset scares. Don’t be surprised if Louisville is in the game late with a chance to upend the Canes.
The top Group of 5 game this weekend features UNLV traveling to Oregon State as a 7-point favorite in a bid to remain alive for the Group of 5 playoff bid.
That’s all we have for the Week 7. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
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