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Welcome to the 2024 Week 6 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
When talking about the golden standard of the upset week, 2007 is often the benchmark with which all others are measured. Not only was the season full of non-stop turnover, but the week-by-week results were amongst the wildest we’ve seen over the past few decades. Week 5 in particular was a bloodbath for top teams, with the following teams taking losses: #3 Oklahoma, #4 Florida, #5 West Virginia, #7 Texas, #10 Rutgers, #13 Clemson, #22 Alabama. Week 5 in 2007 was one of the largest disrupters in history, and had Cal not blown a 35-10 lead against Miami this past weekend, week 6 would have matched the 2007 result. Think about that, we were a correct targeting call, or a correct lineman downfield call, or simply a competent Cal 4th quarter away from witnessing a record tying weekend. Still, it was a momentous weekend that saw #1 Alabama, #4 Tennessee, #9 Missouri, #10 Michigan, #11 USC, #22 Louisville, and #25 UNLV all fall. So, are we on track for another 2007 like season? Let’s check the numbers.
By using a linear weighted scale, we can assess the relative magnitude of each week’s upsets, awarding 26 upset points to a win over #1 and 1 upset point to a win over #25. We’ll consider an upset being a lower ranked team beating a higher ranked team. We won’t consider who Vegas thought the favorite was or the spread at time of game. Through week 6, the 2024 calendar season is exactly 53 upset points behind the 2007 season, no thanks to the lack of ranked upsets in week 3. Can 2024 keep pace? Well, the special thing about the 2007 season was that we got massive upsets literally every single week. Only once from week 5 onward did we not have at least 1 top 3 team lose and at least 2 top 8 teams lose. The lone exception still scored high when there were 5 upsets in the 10-16 range of the AP rankings. To achieve 2007 levels of upset absurdity, we would need on average a top 5 team, a top 10 team, a top 15 team, 2 top 20 teams, and 2 top 25 teams to all lose each week for the rest of the season. That’s how crazy 2007 was. While we may not make it to the highs of 2007 on the whole, week 6 of 2024 will forever go down as one of the great upset weekends in college football history. It was fantastic in so many ways and we can’t wait to see what comes next!
Quick Hitters:
The top upset of the day was easily Vanderbilt’s astounding performance against newly minted #1 Alabama, fresh off of what many thought would be the game/win of the year against Georgia. The computers were so high on Alabama vs the rest of college football that it got us questioning the merits of our own win probability formula. Our formula, which is now under serious review for refinement, gave Alabama a 99.34% chance to beat Vanderbilt. Diego Pavia and the Commodores couldn’t have cared less while running up a first half lead and holding Alabama at arms width for the rest of the game in a 40-35 triumph. When Alabama is ranked behind Georgia this week in the AP poll, it’s not recency bias, it’s just the nature of this shocking result. Georgia also had a BAD game against a lesser SEC team when playing at Kentucky. The Bulldogs still found a way to win. Alabama did not, and that will be reflected both in the strength ratings and in Alabama’s raw resume.
How good was Tennessee to begin with? Who could possibly know? Tennessee looked like world beaters when demolishing NC State, who we now know is not good. Tennessee looked fantastic on defense against Oklahoma, who has since changed quarterback and shown substantial improvement in the passing game. Then there was Arkansas, playing a backup QB with a backup RB. Against a reasonable SEC defense, Tennessee’s offense sputtered again, and this time the defense couldn’t bail them out. Arkansas found the end zone deep into the 4th quarter, and there were no last second heroics to be found for the Volunteers. If Tennessee can split Alabama and Georgia, a 10-2 record and CFP at large bit is still attainable, but a loss to both would likely end Tennessee’s playoff hopes this season.
It was 35-10 when most of America probably tuned out, deep into the AM hours of Sunday morning. There were 8 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter, and the California faithful were raucous having hosted Game Day early in the morning before storming out to a massive lead over #8 Miami in the Saturday nightcap. Cam Ward and the Miami offense responded with touchdown drives of 75-yards, 75-yards, 70-yards, and 92-yards to put Miami ahead 39-38 with 26 seconds to play. Cal couldn’t do anything with the time they had, and a last second interception solidified the astonishing comeback win for the Canes. Of note, this is the second week in a row with officiating controversy for the Hurricanes, with a non-call on a defensive targeting penalty giving Miami the stop they needed to have the ball and a chance to win in the final minutes of the game. After last week’s Hail Mary questionable overturn, this week’s call will do nothing to dampen the conspiracy that the ACC review center is protecting the lone unbeaten team in conference. The play seemed to meet all of the criteria for targeting, but the result was no foul, and Miami took advantage to win the game.
Blowout wins over Murray State and Buffalo, a close win over Boston College who previously upset “#10” Florida State, and a close win over Vanderbilt (apparently not as insignificant as we originally thought) made up the Missouri resume coming into their first road trip of the season in College Station. It didn’t seem to be the resume of a top 10 team, and as a result Vegas made Texas A&M the favorites heading into Saturday’s clash. When everyone puts a team on fraud watch, sometimes everyone is simply correct. Missouri may still be a good team, and has a favorable schedule to get to 10-2, which seems to be the benchmark for at large consideration for the playoff, but the 41-10 result was a setback. For Texas A&M, this may prove to be the launching point for a special season. If the Aggies can survive a home game against LSU, Texas A&M will be favored to reach the Texas game at 10-1 and probably ranked in the top 5 in the country, tied for the lead in the SEC standings.
In a rematch of last year’s championship game, it was Washington making the plays they needed down the stretch to avenge their title game loss to Michigan in a 27-17 victory. Michigan again struggled to throw the football, and an interception with under 4 minutes to play would be the nail in the coffin. Michigan, like Missouri, now faces fraud charges as their season results become less and less impressive. At 4-2, Michigan boasts wins over Fresno State, Arkansas State, fellow Week 6 loser USC, and Minnesota. Do those wins mean anything? The USC win seemed to validate Michigan’s strength, which was in question following a 31-12 loss to Texas, but now USC has lost some luster. Michigan is probably still a top 20 team, but there are legitimate questions about this team’s ceiling given the lack of offensive firepower. With Ohio State and Oregon still left to play, along with Big Ten risers in Illinois and Indiana, it’s not inconceivable to see a world where Michigan finishes 7-5 in their defense of the 23-24 National Title.
Speaking of USC and Minnesota, two team’s whose most recent loss was to Michigan, Saturday’s back and forth affair was an under the radar delight to all who love ugly football and questionable decision making. USC threw 2 interceptions and missed a field goal, and both teams fumbled on back-to-back possessions during the 24-17 Minnesota upset. With about a minute to play, Minnesota faced 3rd and goal from the 1. They tried the brotherly shove and were stuffed. Rather than kick a field goal to take the lead with under a minute to play, they tried the shove again, and on replay review were awarded the touchdown. It was a good thing they went for the touchdown, because USC made it to field goal range with plenty of time on the clock, but needing 7 to tie USC couldn’t convert, throwing an interception to end the game. USC is now 3-2 and unlikely to run the table to enter CFP at large contention. When will it be time to start asking questions about the Lincoln Riley era at USC, with the Trojans now 22-10 in his tenure? USC coaches have been run out for better results. Something worth monitoring if USC has another lackluster campaign this season.
With the other results of the day, our top-rated game coming into the week fell off the radar for most. SMU entered the season as a popular dark horse candidate for the ACC title, and at 4-1 with only a 3-point road loss to unbeaten BYU standing between the Ponies and perfection, SMU is emerging as the dark horse they were supposed to be. Louisville meanwhile looked to rebound following their first loss of the season against a good Notre Dame team. This isn’t quite an elimination game in the ACC title race, but with Miami and Clemson playing well, the margins for other teams are a little smaller, so this was huge for both team’s conference title hopes. SMU would open up a 24-13 halftime lead, but a 3rd quarter surge by the Cardinals left the game deadlocked at 27 entering the 4th quarter. Following more ACC officiating controversy on an overturned fumble call, SMU would punch the ball into the end zone to take a 34-27 lead with 6:39 to play. Louisville would march the length of the field, but a sack would put Louisville behind the 8-ball, and on 4th and 17 SMU would secure an interception in the end zone to take over. Louisville wouldn’t see the ball again, and SMU comes away with a 34-27 road win. The Ponies are not home free, but they also don’t have to play either of Miami or Clemson, so even with another upset 10-2 and a potential berth in the ACC Title game is a real possibility.
In the race for the Group of 5 playoff position, UNLV fell a step behind with Friday’s home loss to Syracuse. In what was one of the most entertaining games of the weekend, the Orange and Rebels went back and forth all night before ending regulation at 38 each. In overtime the Rebels kicked a field goal, and Syracuse managed to find paydirt to win 44-41. It’s a huge result for both teams in that UNLV now needs to basically run the table with a conference title over Boise State to secure a playoff bid, and it’s big for Syracuse who at 4-1 has a favorable schedule to get on a run in the ACC with Miami as the only game that has less than coin flip odds. Could 10-2 in the ACC be enough for an at large playoff berth? Everything about the new system is an unknown, but if UNLV is as good as we believe this is a massive result for the Orange.
Elsewhere in the Group of 5, we are down to 3 unbeaten teams. First is Liberty, who represented the Group of 5 in the Fiesta Bowl last season. Then there are the surging service academies of Army and Navy. Could we be in store for an Army/Navy part 1 in the AAC title game for a CFP spot, followed one week later by a part 2 matchup where the part 1 loser can spoil the CFP selection process? It’s very possible! The G5 playoff spot certainly looks to be Boise State’s to lose at this point, but if the Broncos drop another game along the way it’ll be wide open to a large list of contenders.
Let’s take a look at the Week 6 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
There is a new #1 and it isn’t Texas! After spending much of the early season outside of our top 25, Ohio State has solidified themselves at the top of our strength ratings, and wins over Michigan State and Iowa have added enough to the raw resume to boost the Buckeyes into the top spot. Unlike in previous weeks, there was no team with both a top 5 strength rating and top 5 raw resume, which opened the door for a very tight race to the top spot.
Alabama falls all the way to #3, just behind … Georgia? It’s an SEC 2/3, but again neither team hails from Austin. Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt is a huge hit to the raw resume, but the win over Georgia is still enough to keep the Tide near the top of the rankings. Georgia also is bolstered by raw resume, with both wins over Clemson and Kentucky currently rating as great wins.
Texas doesn’t drop to #4, or #5, and is instead all the way down at #6. This is purely a reflection of the impact that Michigan has on the Longhorn’s raw resume. Michigan’s loss to Washington put a huge hit in their team strength rating, and that hurts the Texas raw resume, which was standing on the strength of that single road win. Fortunately for Texas opportunity comes quickly in the SEC, with Oklahoma coming up next.
Miami has fraud alert written all over them after surviving the Hail Mary attempt by Virginia Tech and then coming back from 35-10 down to defeat Cal this past weekend. Still, the raw resume value cannot be ignored. Miami rates strong enough that the boost in raw resume elevates the Hurricanes into our top 5, for now…
The wrong SEC team starting with a T is in the AP Top 10. Tennessee rates as a stronger team according to our composite team strength ratings, but it’s Texas A&M who is comfortably ahead on overall resume, primarily because their raw resume ranks as the 3rd strongest in the country. Let’s look at the overall resumes for both.
The Arkansas loss is much more penalizing for Tennessee because of the unexpected nature of that result. Despite ranking as the 9th strongest team, Tennessee’s raw resume sits at 38th in the country, tanking their overall ratings. If that evidence isn’t sufficient, just look to Texas A&M’s opponent in week 5 and how they faired. One week later, and Arkansas was storming the field on the Volunteers.
Unexpected results from Week 6 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
As big as the Alabama and Tennessee losses were this weekend, don’t sleep on the performance of the Houston Cougars against TCU, our 2nd largest upset margin of the weekend. Also, shout out to Louisiana Monroe at 4-1 with a big upset over James Madison, on par with Minnesota’s upset of USC!
With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?
With a week 6 formula correction in play, the CFP odds have normalized to expected standards with Ohio State leading the way with a 34.6% chance to take home the title. Our favorite first round matchup? Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos against the Georgia Defense. Tough draw for Kansas State, who would need to beat the 3rd and 2nd strongest teams just to make the CFP Semifinals.
Now let’s highlight a few Week 7 games worth watching
Top Game:
Week 7 is loaded with great matchups, led by Ohio State at Oregon. We have Ohio State winning by 9 in this one, but given the resiliency of the Oregon Ducks in a few contested games this season don’t be surprised if they keep it close late in the game. The winner of this one will be in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten for several weeks to come.
Of the top 10 games this weekend, 4 are Big Ten games, including the top 3. The SEC has a pair of games in the top 10, and the remaining 4 are all Big 12 matchups.
If looking for an “AP Upset”, setting aside Ohio State vs Oregon, there is a 61.9% chance one or more of the AP top 7 loses this weekend, with the highest odds for a loss going to #1 Texas at 22.7% in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma.
That’s all we have for the Week 6. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
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