2024 Week 5 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 5 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

Instant Classic.  There isn’t much more to say about what could be the regular season game of the year.  Alabama vs Georgia was everything we hoped it would be.  The Crimson Tide and Bulldogs have now played 10 times since the beginning of the 2008 season.  In all 10 games, Georgia was ranked in the AP or CFP Top 10 at the time of the game.  In all 10 games, Alabama was ranked in the AP or CFP Top 13.  Twice these teams have played for a National Title, with Alabama winning in overtime in 2018 and Georgia taking the title in 2022.  In the new 12-team playoff era, we were told that regular season games would lose meaning and value, but it certainly didn’t feel that way on Saturday as the clock hit zeros.  Alabama raced out to a 28-0 lead in the first half and found themselves ahead 33-15 early in the 4th quarter with a 99.7% win probability.  With 2:31 remaining, Georgia kicked off following a 1 play 67-yard touchdown drive with a 34-33 lead.  It was the largest comeback in a game featuring two top 5 teams in AP history, until one play later when it wasn’t.  On the first play of the drive, Likely Heisman contender Jalen Milroe uncorked a deep pass down the right sideline to star 17-year-old Freshman receiver Ryan Williams, who put the defensive backs in the spin cycle twice on his way to the end zone for the game winning touchdown.  Georgia had a shot at the end, but a Zabien Brown interception in the end zone would seal victory for the Crimson Tide.  Name the greatest comebacks in college football?  2017 UCLA over Texas A&M, 2010 Auburn over Alabama, 2016 TCU over Oregon, 1980 BYU over SMU, 2015 Baylor over TCU, and countless others.  Georgia over Alabama would have been near the top of that list, but it wasn’t meant to be, and now the Crimson Tide march on again.

Quick Hitters:

• In 2012, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks met in Washington for a Monday Night Football showdown.  On the final play, Seattle rookie quarterback Russell Wilson would lob a Hail Mary pass to the end zone intended for Golden Tate.  Tate and defensive back Jennings of the Packers would meet the ball in the air and fight for possession as they fell to the ground.  The two nearby officials would give conflicting signals initially, before settling on the ruling of a touchdown.  The play would later be known as the Fail Mary.  The result was notable at the time due to the NFL admitting that offensive pass interference was missed in the initial call, as well as the presence of the replacement officials working the game during the referee lockout of 2012.  While controversial, the 2012 season would prove to be a launching point for the Legion of Boom era in Seattle helmed by Wilson at QB, resulting in several Super Bowl appearances and a title.  On Friday evening, Miami would find themselves on the winning side of another controversial Hail Mary attempt, with Virginia Tech seeming to secure the touchdown prior to a Miami player ripping out the ball once both players fell to the ground.  While likely the correct call, there was controversy around the initial ruling of a touchdown, as well as the lack of substantive replay evidence to overturn the call on the field.  It is extremely unlikely that the ACC replay officials ruled in favor of Miami because of their National Title hopes this season, however that doesn’t mean the ruling hasn’t substantially boosted playoff hopes for the Hurricanes who remain undefeated and in the AP Top 10.  This may not have been a Fail Mary, but the circumstances of the ruling make the result equally memorable.

• Seemingly buried by the evening SEC showdown, Kentucky’s upset of Ole Miss in Oxford could prove to be a HUGE result in the CFP At Large race.  Ole Miss did not project to be an SEC champion, but their early season strength suggested that they would contend for one of the available At Large playoff bids.  Ole Miss, with only a projected loss to Georgia and coin flip games against LSU and Oklahoma figured to be a 10-2 SEC contender at worst, easily a CFP team, but that is all in question now following the loss to Kentucky.

• The absence of Cam Rising finally caught up with Utah in a 23-10 loss to Arizona.  The Big 12 looked to be a bloodbath this season with the tightest dispersion between the best and worst teams amongst all power conferences.  Don’t be surprised if the conference title game features multiple teams with ten or less wins.  This is a huge result for Arizona, whose loss to Kansas State does not count for conference standings.  The margin for Utah grows smaller if they hope to remain in contention for an At Large playoff bid as a non-Big 12 champion.

Let’s take a look at the Week 5 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• And then there was one… Alabama has clearly separated at the top of the resume rankings with a comfortable lead over other contenders on both team strength and raw resume value.  With the road win over Wisconsin and the home win over Georgia providing a boost it’s not a surprise to see the Tide in the top spot.

• Following their first loss of the season, Georgia falls all the way to … #2?  Don’t be fooled by a road loss to the strongest team in the country in a game that both teams could easily have won, Georgia still rates as the 4th strongest team in the country and has a top 5 raw resume.  Don’t forget the value accrued with the week 1 win over Clemson, and the Kentucky road win suddenly looks more valuable with the Wildcats recent upset of Ole Miss.

• Alabama may have the top overall resume by a large margin, but the team with the top raw resume is BYU!  A home win over a surging Kansas State pairs well with road wins over Baylor and a solid SMU squad.  The Big 12 may lack elite team strength, but the abundance of depth within the conference means that strong raw resumes will persist for those who run the gauntlet this season.  BYU is well on their way at 5-0.

• Ohio State is starting their raw resume campaign after a light opening to their schedule.  The Buckeyes still present as outliers, above the CFP threshold this week, with Michigan State adding meaningful but not significant value to the raw resume.  Rating as the 3rd strongest team in the country buys Ohio State margin on the overall resume, but it’ll be at least one more week before Ohio State cracks our resume-based CFP.

Unexpected results from Week 5 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

There were two meaningful CFP influencing upsets this week with Arizona toppling Utah and Kentucky upsetting Ole Miss on the road.  Neither were the top upset of the week, with the honors going to Colorado, who drubbed UCF on the road in a game we’d still project to UCF in a rematch.

With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?

With Alabama’s surge into the #1 seed, the Crimson Tide now hold an astounding 76% odds to win the title.  The second strongest odds go to Texas, coming out of the CFP 6-seed.  The worst bracket luck in terms of making the title game goes to Miami.  Despite projecting as a favorite at a neutral site over USC, and having a first-round bye while USC plays at Texas, Miami carries lower odds to make the CFP Title game due to the anticipated Georgia / Alabama gauntlet in the Quarterfinal and Semifinal rounds.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 6 games worth watching

Top Game:

• Coming off of a close loss to Notre Dame, Louisville looks to regroup against ACC newcomer SMU as 3-point favorites in our top game of the week.  There is not the same star power as in week 5, but there is depth at the top.  Amongst the top 4 games, 3 feature a team coming off of a loss.  If you are upset minded this week, there is about a 48.5% probability that one of Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee or Oregon will lose.  Who knows, maybe we’ll see all of them on the ropes this week, either way there’s one thing that will definitely happen.  College football will deliver once again, as it always does!

That’s all we have for the Week 5.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)