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Welcome to the 2024 Week 4 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
The year is 1975, it’s December 28th, and a brisk 25 degrees as the Cowboys and Vikings kickoff a divisional round battle in the NFL playoffs. The defending NFC champion Minnesota Vikings play well, and find themselves with a 14-10 lead deep into the 4th quarter. The Cowboys force a punt with just under 2 minutes remaining in the game and are able to move to midfield with 32 seconds on the clock. On second and 10, Roger Staubach pump fakes and then uncorks a deep pass to receiver Drew Pearson, who is streaking down the field with single coverage. The safety help over the top is late to the play, and Pearson is able to shake the defender just enough to secure the pass and score the unlikely touchdown. The touchdown pass would be enough to propel the Cowboys into the NFC Title Game where they would dispatch the Rams in route to a Super Bowl appearance. Asked about the play after the game, Roger Staubach was quoted saying after he had thrown the ball, “When I closed my eyes I said a Hail Mary.” The Hail Mary as a descriptive phrase for a last-ditch effort to secure victory in football was born.
College football has a history of iconic moments, filled with miracle passes as time expires to save a game. The Hail Flutie, Jauan Jennings and Tennessee taking down Georgia, The Bluegrass Miracle, The Prayer at Jordan-Hare, BYU in the 1980 Holiday Bowl, and Colorado’s Miracle at Michigan. There are countless more to list off, ranging from the improbable to the impossible, and another was added on Saturday when Colorado Quarterback Shedeur Sanders rolled to the left and fired a last second pass to the endzone. As with the original Staubach to Pearson Hail Mary, receiver LaJohntay Wester found himself in single coverage with safety coverage late to the party, and was able to shake free to make a diving catch to keep hope alive. The touchdown and extra point conversion would send the game to overtime, where Colorado 2-way star Travis Hunter would again make his mark in the remarkable comeback victory, forcing a fumble as Baylor’s running back crossed the goal line on 1st and goal to secure the win. Hunter would finish the game with 7 receptions for 130 yards and the game winning forced fumble, adding to his Heisman campaign. Baylor coach Dave Aranda was quoted after the game calling the defensive formation that allowed the Hail Mary “Victory Cigar”. After the game it was the Buffs in celebration while the Bears hopes and dreams went up in smoke. Another magical result in the 2024 college football season.
Quick Hitters:
Welcome to the Big Ten! It was a rude awakening early for USC against Michigan, who pounded the Trojans over and over with the run game, racing out to a 14-3 halftime lead. USC would fight back in the second half though, taking a late lead. The defending champs rallied though, and found the endzone late to secure a huge victory at this stage of the season. For Michigan, this is a statement return to form that will bolster their Big Ten and CFP hopes after the early season loss to Texas. For USC, it’s a wake up call for the style of play they’ll face often in the Big Ten, and it does set them back in their journey to Big Ten and CFP glory.
Welcome to the SEC! It was also a rude awakening for the Oklahoma Sooners getting smashed in the face over and over on offense by a dynamic Tennessee defense. The usually potent Sooners have struggled on offense this season, and their flaws were exposed early and often against the Volunteers. Tennessee meanwhile continues to look the part of a title contender, while their opponents still leave question on what their wins mean. NC State has proven to be of lower quality than expected, as Clemson demonstrated Saturday, and a flawed Oklahoma team was likely ranked above their true rating. While the type of test still leaves questions unanswered, the grade for Tennessee is a resounding A+ thus far in the season.
Utah with Cam Rising? Awesome! Utah without Cam Rising? Stil pretty darn good. Oklahoma State found out on Saturday, falling behind under the stifling Utes defense. A late comeback effort would fall short and Utah now has a huge edge in the race for the Big 12 and the CFP. The test now continues with a potent Arizona squad coming to town. In 2023 in Tucson Utah lost 42-18. Will this be the year for revenge?
Illinois may be for real! The win over Kansas looked great given the Jayhawk’s preseason ranking, but with Kansas falling to 1-3 the shine of that win has lost luster. Maybe Nebraska will drop back a bit in the coming weeks, but this overtime win for Illinois was another statement road performance that positions the Illini to be spoilers in the Big Ten title race. Illinois still has Penn State, Michigan and Oregon on the schedule, but if they could go 1-2 in those games and avoid other upsets, the CFP is a possibility. Go 2-1 and the Big Ten title is in reach.
BYU entered the season ranked 13th in the Big 12 by both the media and coaches, with Kalani Sitake on the hot seat. Through 4 weeks that seat has cooled considerably. Stats would tell you Kansas State and BYU were evenly matched. The 38-9 final score says otherwise. It’s a statement win for BYU who now find themselves nationally ranked heading into an early road game in Waco. In the last 14 early road games BYU is 2-12. Can the Cougars buck the trend?
For a second week in a row, it’s hard to tell if Missouri is legit or not. After opening the season with shutouts of Murry State and Buffalo, Missouri struggled to put both Boston College and Vanderbilt away. Both wins are not without value, considering the unexpected wins Boston College and Vanderbilt authored against Florida State and Virginia Tech early in the season. Still, we’ve learned a lot about the Seminoles and Hokies, and it isn’t pretty. How good are Boston College and Vanderbilt? We aren’t totally sure right now, and Missouri only beat each by a single score. Missouri has week 5 off before a road trip to Texas A&M. A favorable SEC schedule means we may not have many opportunities to truly evaluate Missouri’s potential if they continue playing their opponents in close games.
Possessions for James Madison in Chapel Hill on Saturday: Field Goal, Punt, Punt Return Touchdown, Punt, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Fumble, Punt, Pick Six. Score, 53-21. Wait, what? That was only the first half?! James Madison finished 11-1 in regular season play in 2023 only suffering an overtime loss to Appalachian State. A similar season in 2024 with a conference title on top could conceivably send the Dukes to the CFP.
Following meaningful road wins that vaulted them into Group of 5 CFP contention, both Northern Illinois and Memphis came crashing back to Earth with deflating performances against Buffalo and Navy respectively. The Group of 5 CFP race will have plenty of ebbs and flows, but these upsets are the ones that will make the difference when differentiating between conference champions in the rankings. This was a missed opportunity for both teams.
Let’s take a look at the Week 4 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
Ohio State and Ole Miss continue to be unknowns from a resume perspective ranked purely on their preseason expected strength in the AP poll. For Ohio State, of the top 56 teams in our resume rankings the Buckeyes currently have the 56th strongest Raw Resume. Nation wide Ohio State sits at 63. Big wins over Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall look great in the box score, but they add almost nothing in terms of raw resume value. Michigan State on the road will help, but it’ll likely be mid to late October before Ohio State makes a dent in the raw resume gap to the top teams. Ole Miss meanwhile has looked equally dominant, but when Wake Forest is the top win on the resume there will continue to be a gap to the top teams.
Michigan’s win over USC has done wonders for the Wolverine Overall Resume, vaulting Michigan up to #6 this week despite the 3-1 record. Michigan comfortably ranks as the top 1-loss team ahead of the pair of LSU and USC.
The SEC continues to dominate in the AP Poll, holding 6 of the top 7 positions in the latest rankings. We likewise have the SEC holding strong with the top 4 resumes to date. The Big 12 may not have the raw strength of the top Big Ten contenders, but on resume don’t sleep on the Big 12, where the #7, #8, #12, #18, and #20 Overall Resumes reside. The ACC on the other hand? Feel free to sleep. The ACC has the same number of top 20 resumes as the likes of the Pac-12 and the Independents. Pitt and Louisville may soon elevate, but for now the resume value in conference is severely lacking.
The loss to Buffalo is devastating for Northern Illinois, but the win over Notre Dame carries so much value that the Huskies remain in the CFP race only 3 spots behind this week’s Group of 5 representative UNLV. Following the dominant win over North Carolina, James Madison sits only 2 spots further back.
Unexpected results from Week 4 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
Florida State with an unexpected loss to Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech with an unexpected loss to Syracuse. Syracuse with an unexpected loss to Stanford. Who will Stanford unexpectedly lose to next? We only have Stanford as favorites in one more game this year, so congratulations in advance to Wake Forest on the upset win on October 26th.
With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?
The Composite Team Strength Rating expansion was not kind to Georgia this week. As several rating systems came online following week 4 action, the poor performance against Kentucky made an appearance as the Bulldogs fell in the strength ratings despite the bye week. Alabama meanwhile was elevated into the #2 spot behind Texas, and it shows in the CFP title odds, with Alabama joining Texas in the mid 40 percent range. Georgia is the only other team cracking 1% in our latest projection. This is definitely a case of Alabama sitting in the #6 spot and gaining a huge advantage over Georgia out of the #5 slot simply because the Crimson Tide get to avoid the Texas Longhorns for another round, where Georgia drops from an 84% chance of making the semifinals to a 20% chance of playing for a title.
Now let’s highlight a few Week 5 games worth watching
Top Game:
At present, the top 4 games of the regular season feature a trio of Georgia games and the Ohio State at Oregon matchup in early October. One of those 3 is this weekend with Alabama hosting Georgia in a massive game. With the top game of the season rating at 100 on the Game Quality index this one sits at 99.95. Why is it not higher? Alabama suddenly projects as a 6.5 favorite over Georgia, a margin that Vegas is likely to disagree with going into the weekend. This is a battle of the titans and should be an outstanding game, and it could shape the CFP title odds in a big way.
That’s all we have for the Week 4. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
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