2024 Week 3 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 3 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

The date was October 30th, 2002.  The New York Jets are sitting at 2-5 following a gut wrenching 24-21 loss to the Cleveland Browns.  The season is on the brink of collapse, maybe already past the point of no return, and Coach Herm Edwards takes the podium in a media press conference, authoring this quote.  “This is what’s great about sports.  This is what the greatest thing about sports is.  You play to win the game.  (pause…) Hello?!  You play to win the game!  You don’t play to just play it.  That’s the great thing about sports.  You play to win, and I don’t care if you have any wins, you go play to win.  When you start telling me it doesn’t matter, then retire.  Get out.  Cause it matters.”  The Jets would rally around that message and finish the season on a 7-2 run, claiming the division title and earning a playoff berth.  It’s a great quote in that it reinforces the importance of doing the things required to achieve victory at all cost.  Take every opportunity afforded to you, and make it count, because you play to win the game, not keep it close.  It is a reminder that would have served Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops well prior to his decision to punt, down 1, with 3 minutes to play in the 4th quarter against the #1 team in the country.

Kentucky trailed #1 Georgia at home 13-12, having played superb on defense all night, yet having failed to enter the endzone themselves settling for 4 field goals on previous drives.  The upset minded Wildcats took the ball with 6:25 to play and began what could have been the game winning drive.  Kentucky ate clock as the rolled down the field, until Georgia’s defense stepped up to force a 4th and 8 from the Georgia 47 yard-line.  A first down would put Kentucky into field goal range, where kicker Alex Raynor had connected several times in the game.  A turnover would give Georgia the ball at midfield, but Kentucky would still have the 2-minute timeout and all 3 of their own timeouts to help them stop the clock and potentially have 1 more possession.  Going for the first down required only 1 motivation, “you play to win the game”.  Mark Stoops did not understand the math.  Mark Stoops did not understand the opportunity.  Mark Stoops did not understand the initiative required to give his team the best chance to win, and from that mindset Stoops chose to punt the ball away rather than try to achieve success on 4th and 8.

The fans knew cowardice when they saw it, booing loudly at the decision to punt the ball away, and Georgia quickly made Kentucky pay by converting first down after first down.  By the time Kentucky saw the ball again, they’d have 2 plays with about 10 total seconds of clock to work with to go the length of the field with no timeouts, virtually impossible.  Not surprisingly, they were unsuccessful, allowing Georgia to escape with the 13-12 road win.  How bad was the decision to punt?  ESPN immediately docked Kentucky 20% in win probability from the decision.  The Jon Bois Surrender Index formula yields a value of 45.137, good for somewhere between the 98th and 99th percentile of cowardly punts relative to NFL punting going back to 1999.  This is the kind of punt in college football that will be amongst the worst 2-3 punts over an entire season, and it’s maddening that it occurred against the #1 team in the country with which Kentucky was absolutely NOT expected to hang with on Saturday.  The great thing about sports is when you see a team that understands what it means to play to win the game.  The most painful is watching a fanbase in real time that understands, and a coaching staff that does not.  Kentucky failed to play to win, and therefore lost, to Georgia’s benefit as the Bulldogs avoid the upset.

Quick Hitters:

• In Week 0, Georgia Tech upsets Florida State and subsequently enters the AP Top 25.  Two weeks later, Georgia Tech loses on the road to Syracuse.  In Week 1, Boston College upsets Florida State and subsequently enters the AP Top 25.  Two weeks later, Boston College loses on the road to Missouri.  In Week 3, Memphis upsets Florida State, and is likely to enter the AP Top 25 within the next week or two.  In two weeks, Memphis hosts Middle Tennessee State.  Can the Tigers buck the curse?  Speaking of Boston College, the Eagles played quite well in a hostile environment, keeping close with top ten Missouri throughout the affair.  It’s hard to judge a team like Boston College for their road win over Florida State because of how bad FSU has been this season, but is much easier to judge them after hanging tight with Missouri.  BC is likely to drop out of the AP Top 25, but they will linger for awhile and may legitimately be a Top 25 team under head coach Bill O’Brian.

• How good is South Carolina really?  It’s hard to say at this point in the season.  The Gamecocks opened the season with a real scare against Old Dominion, but then absolutely railed Kentucky on the road, the same Kentucky team that just nearly toppled Georgia.  Against LSU, South Carolina opened the game in dominant fashion, and as LSU woke up SC was always there with a counterpunch of their own.  Even after losing their starting QB, South Caroling still found the counterpunches they needed to win, but it wasn’t enough in the end.  With 1:12 to play, LSU found the endzone to take a 3-point lead, and South Carolina’s tying field goal attempt missed wide left.  Is South Carolina the team that almost lost to Old Dominion or are they the team that demolished Kentucky?  On Saturday, they were both, and that wasn’t good enough to beat LSU.

• Per the AP rankings, there was not a single surprising Top 25 result on Saturday.  While some games were close, there were a number of resounding wins over power conference teams.  Amongst the wins that stood out the most were Kansas State running away from Arizona in a non-conference Big 12 on Big 12 matchup.  After a shaky performance against Tulane in Week 2, this result was a much-needed show of strength for Kansas State and certainly a “welcome to the Big 12” moment for Arizona.  Other big wins include Alabama pulverizing Wisconsin on the road, Oregon doing the same at Oregon State, and Notre Dame exercising some demons in a rout of Purdue.

Let’s take a look at the Week 3 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• It is tight at the top!  Last week, we had Texas climbing to the top spot, while Georgia was ahead in the AP Poll.  This week the AP has elevated Texas to the number 1 ranking, and we have returned the Bulldogs to the top position.  Why?  Georgia took a dip in the strength ratings as a result of the tight win over Kentucky, however Georgia gained more in raw resume value beating the Wildcats vs the Texas win over UTSA than what Georgia lost on team strength.  These two will settle things on October 19th, but if they both remain unbeaten up to that point expect them to continue flipping back and forth in the top position.

• Uh, what is Oklahoma doing in the CFP Resume Rankings playoff when they’ve struggled to put away (checks notes) Houston and Tulane?  Oklahoma has not played spectacularly on the field, and many on X have the Sooners on “fraud alert” for their performances thus far, but Oklahoma still rates as a top 15 team according to the strength ratings, and has a top 20 raw resume.  The only team we have below the Sooners with both a top 20 strength rating and top 20 raw resume is LSU, who we have 5 positions lower in our rankings.  OU may be exposed soon, but for now this is the appropriate place to put them.

• Did Notre Dame earn a mulligan against Texas A&M, now spent on the Northern Illinois loss?  The data seems to suggest this is the case, as the Fighting Irish sit as our last at large CFP bid today, ahead of the likes of Missouri and Tennessee, two top 10 teams in the AP Poll.  If Notre Dame continues their run of form from the Purdue win expect them to remain in CFP contention for many weeks to come.

• Where is Ohio State?  Not in our top 25.  Why?  Look at the resume visualized and take notice of how little Ohio State has moved from the Y-Axis starting position.  Wins over Akron and Western Michigan are adding almost nothing to the Buckeyes’ resume, and we likely won’t see much change for a few more weeks with Marshall and Michigan State to come in September.  Team strength alone can only carry you so far.

Unexpected results from Week 3 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

Not many unexpected results.  In fact, only 2.  Look away Vanderbilt and Washington fans.

With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?

• By the slimmest of margins, it’s Alabama from the 6-seed carrying the greatest title odds.  Why?  Georgia and Texas would face each other in the semifinals, greatly diminishing each team’s title odds.  Alabama meanwhile would be an underdog to both, yet the easier path to the CFP title game leaves the Crimson Tide with the top odds to win the Week 3 projected bracket.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 4 games worth watching

Top Game:

• There are three games that certainly stand out this week, including a big weekend for the state of Oklahoma, with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State featuring in matchups against Tennessee and Utah respectively.  The top game by a slim margin features the Big Ten conference opener for the USC Trojans as they travel to Ann Arbor for a matchup with the defending National Champions.  Michigan projects as the favorite, but this may still be influenced by holdover ratings from the 2023 season influencing early season projections.  In reality, this game is more likely to be a pick ‘em than Michigan by 2.5.  It should still be a great game amongst many in a loaded week 4 slate!

That’s all we have for the Week 3.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)