2024 Week 2 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 2 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

I think Florida State is great!  They are coming off of a fantastic season and have a lot of highly paid transfers coming in to bolster the team this season.  As Michael Jordan likes to say, “the ceiling is the roof!”  Wait, they lost in Week 0 to Georgia Tech?  Wow!  Georgia Tech must also be great!  I expect big things from the Yellow Jackets this year.  They are on the rise and I can’t wait to see their team validated against, wait … did they just lose to Syracuse?  And they were down 31-14 before making a late charge to keep the game competitive?  Wow!  Syracuse must be great this year!  Oh, by the way, did you see that Notre Dame win last week over Texas A&M on the road!  Wow!  They are a lock for the CFP.  Have you seen their schedule?  What?  They LOST to NORTHERN ILLINOIS?!?  At home?  Maybe Northern Illinois is really great.  Wow!

Be wary of early season narratives driven from preseason expectations.  Maybe Florida State is just bad, and beating them on a walk off field goal doesn’t guarantee anything about how good Georgia Tech is.  Maybe Texas A&M and Notre Dame aren’t world beaters playing at the peak of college football.  Narrative bubbles pop all the time, and it’s important to reevaluate what has happened after the bubble has popped, especially in the 12-team playoff era.  Nebraska may find their way into the rankings.  Tennessee may push for the top 10.  Texas may push for #1.  We don’t know if Colorado is any good.  We don’t know if NC State is any good.  We don’t know if Michigan is any good.  Give the narratives time to breathe for a bit, and be sure to reevaluate perceptions often.  It’s a long season!  Let’s check in on the big narrative building pieces that fell into place this week.

Quick Hitters:

• Texas looked great!  The Longhorns had their way with Michigan, who looked like a shell of the title team from last year.  The models were split on Michigan going into this game, and those that faded Michigan in a big way look to have the situation correct.  Some models take longer to shed past season results or preseason priors, and others are much more reactive to roster turnover or small sample sizes in the current season.  Any model holding onto the belief that Michigan is in the same ballpark is last year will likely continue to be wrong until they adapt, that or Texas is really the class of college football this year.  Based on what we just saw, that’s a real possibility.

• Notre Dame, what are we going to do with you…  Few teams looked more impressive than Notre Dame in week 1, as the Fighting Irish picked up a HUGE road win in College Station over Texas A&M.  Why was that huge?  Notre Dame’s schedule is pretty light, with a distinct lack of resume building win opportunities.  The win over A&M seemed to buy Notre Dame a mulligan or two in the regular season and keep the playoff hopes alive.  Well, if the Irish had a mulligan, it has been completely and totally spent.  Northern Illinois came in, took a 13-7 halftime lead, again held Notre Dame to only 7 in the second half, and nailed a field goal with just over 30 seconds to play to secure a 16-14 road win.  If Northern Illinois has a strong season, this is the type of win that could distinguish the Huskies in the race for the Group of 5 playoff bid.  This was a massive result for both teams.

• While Texas vs Michigan turned into a blowout, there were a ton of close games in the early window, including Kansas State coming from behind to beat Tulane on the road, Oklahoma State coming from behind to beat Arkansas in double overtime, and stunningly, Penn State needing a second half comeback to beat Bowling Green.  All 3 favored teams won, but having to come from behind by multiple scores to remain unbeaten?  Yikes!

• Georgia Tech attempted to join in the ranked come from behind parade, but Syracuse was able to hang on for the ranked upset.  Be wary again of false narratives, like Georgia Tech being great because of the win over Florida State.  The Yellow Jackets could become this year’s Colorado, after the Buffs stunned 2022 contender TCU to open 2023 season and found themselves in the rankings, only to struggle for the remainder of the season.

• Iowa almost had it, but with 33 seconds left Iowa State marched the length of the field to get into field goal range and drilled a 54-yard kick to pull ahead 20-19.  Iowa will rue the failed 2-point attempt as well as the defensive structure that allowed Iowa State’s final drive, one with which the Cyclones completed with no timeouts to work with.  Don’t be surprised if Iowa State jumps up into the resume top 25 off the strength of this road triumph.

• Kansas has been on the rise for several years now under Lance Leipold, but it’s fair to wonder if this season will represent another step forward with Big 12 title contention or if Kansas will stabilize as an ok, sometimes good, but never great team.  On the road against Illinois, there were discouraging signs that the upward trajectory their anticipatory AP polling assumed was overstated, as Illinois matched the Jayhawks blow for blow in a game that came down to the final play, where QB Jalon Daniels was unable to uncork a Hail Mary throw that could have won the game for Kansas, leaving Illinois with the upset win.

• After last week’s embarrassing blow out loss to UNLV, Houston looked to bounce back with a great road performance at Oklahoma.  It seemed the Cougars defense had OU’s number all day, allowing Houston to have possession down 2 in the 4th quarter.  Houston drove to the OU 43-yard line, and faced 4th and 4 with a chance to convert and enter field goal range.  Houston’s win probability at this point according to ESPN was 38.9%.  One play later, following a cowardly punt, the win probability was 29.6%, a net decrease of 9.3% on a single decision.  Houston would never get an opportunity as good as the 4th down spot, as Oklahoma drove down the field, taking another 6 minutes off the clock before punting and pinning Houstin inside the 5.  A shotgun handoff running play on first down resulted in a safety, and Houston would be unable to enter Hail Mary range prior to the game ending, enabling Oklahoma to escape with a victory.  By the way, if the transitive property holds, OU better be grateful they don’t have UNLV on the schedule anytime soon.

• In our top nightcap, a case of “Big Ten After Dark”, Oregon found itself in a dogfight with Boise State, whom the Ducks had never beaten.  When Boise lead going into the half, it seemed like more of the same, but Oregon pulled ahead going into the 4th and seemed to have the game in control before fumbling twice with Boise converting for touchdowns on both occasions to take a lead.  Oregon then ran the kickoff back for a touchdown to tie the game again, but fumbled the ball before crossing the goal line.  Had Boise State recovered the ball in the endzone, it’s likely the Broncos would have won the game.  Another Oregon player did pick up the ball though, making the official ruling on the play a kickoff return, fumble into the endzone, recovered by Oregon for a touchdown.  Both teams would get a chance to possess the ball again, but it was Oregon who was able to march into field goal range to secure the win as time expired.

• One result worth highlighting is Tennessee’s obliteration of NC State in primetime on ABC.  The 51-10 route could be a sign that Tennessee is in the title hunt this year, because they looked the part of a true contender Saturday.  The Volunteers connected on big play after big play, and looked great on defense.  A cautionary tale though, NC State struggled with Western Carolina in week 1.  There is no guarantee they are anywhere close to as good as their ranking suggested.  Still, Tennessee’s dominance cannot be overlooked in this one.  They were great!

Let’s take a look at the Week 2 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• Texas takes over as the #1 team, but by the smallest of margins over Georgia.  Both teams have created substantial separation over the field on both resume and strength.  We’ll see if Georgia can reclaim the top spot in the coming weeks, but as long as these two teams remain unbeaten, they look to have the top 2 spots on lockdown.

• The projected playoff this week features the expected run of SEC and Big Ten teams, with 5 and 3 respectively getting in.  The Big 12 steps in with 2 playoff contenders, neither being Utah, leaving the ACC and MAC as 1 bid leagues.  Notables to miss the CFP this week include defending champion Michigan and AP #3 Ohio State.

Unexpected results from Week 2 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Notre Dame … Ouch!  No game can be taken for granted, although if you told the Fighting Irish they would be 1-1 to start the season they wouldn’t be nearly as disappointed as they are this week.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 3 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

• This week is a little light at the top, but has great depth and potential.  The marquee matchup by the smallest of margins takes place in Fort Worth, with the UCF Knights playing the TCU Horned Frogs in a game we project as a true pick-em.  Keep an eye out for quality games on both Thursday and Friday as well.

That’s all we have for the Week 2.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)