2024 Week 12 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 12 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

What a crazy season this has been from a data perspective!  There are currently 3 unbeaten teams, none of which the computers are a huge fan of, and conference realignment has completely stacked losses on some very strong teams, something we see in the NFL, but rarely in college football.  It’s a new normal for the resume data, where losses do not tank resumes, and avoiding losses doesn’t guarantee resume quality.  Take Indiana for example, currently unbeaten at 10-0 in the Big Ten.  There are 4 great teams by team strength in the Big Ten.  Indiana has yet to play any of the other 3.  This means the resume potential for the Hoosiers is limited until after the Ohio State game this coming weekend.  Now on the flip side, look at Georgia.  Prior to week 12, Georgia had played 6 (!!) games that offer more win value than Indiana’s best win (Michigan, Washington, and UCLA all pretty close for that distinction).  Georgia was 4-2 in those games against teams that present more of a challenge than anything Indiana has faced.  What does that mean?  Georgia, the 5th strongest team in the country, has a loss to the 2nd and 5th strongest teams in the country, both on the road, and wins over the 3rd strongest (road), the 14th strongest (neutral), the 27th strongest (neutral), and 54th strongest (road) teams.  Of the 6 toughest games for Georgia at that point, not one game had been at home.  News flash, winning on the road against elite teams is not easy.  Meanwhile, Indiana’s toughest opponents on the season have been the 43rd, 45th, and 52nd strongest teams, all at home, and the 62nd on the road.  It’s not Indiana’s fault that their opponents on a randomly generated bloated conference schedule has deprived them opportunity against the elite Big Ten teams, but ranking a team like Indiana relative to Georgia has to account for the value of a record against the schedule the team plays.  In last week’s committee rankings, Indiana sat in the #5 position, while Georgia was outside of the CFP picture looking in.  If we flipped these teams there is a strong likelihood that Georgia is unbeaten and that Indiana would need to upset one of Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, all on the road, to be 7-2 and in the CFP hunt.  Why make a stink out of these two teams?  It’s a microcosm of the bigger picture where great SEC teams are taking losses and finding themselves behind less deserving teams with easier schedules in the rankings.  Indiana has had a great season, and can change a lot by beating Ohio State this coming weekend, but like the committee we don’t project, and Indiana is well behind on raw resume and team strength from some of these top tier SEC squads, and until the data changes we’re going to speak up for the incoming resume injustice in Tuesday’s Committee Rankings.  Oh, by the way, all of the above analysis was true as of last week, prior to Georgia beating the 11th strongest team in the country, Tennessee, at home.  Another feather in the cap of a dominant Georgia resume.  Will anyone in the Committee care?  We doubt it…

Quick Hitters:

• Speaking of unbeaten teams, Oregon also remains unbeaten this weekend with an uninspiring win on the road at Wisconsin.  The Ducks almost certainly will remain #1 in the Committee Rankings, but the computers are starting to fade Oregon atop the strength ratings.  In the strength composite, Oregon has fallen well behind other CFP contenders, finding themselves well behind the likes of Ohio State, Alabama, and Texas.  It’s a shocking fall for the Ducks, but given some of the on-field performances this season maybe it’s not a surprise.  If Oregon fails to win the Big Ten or a playoff game, the signs of that possibility are creeping into view in the computer ratings.

• What do we make of the BYU loss to now 4-6 Kansas?  It’s a weird result in that it isn’t shocking or surprising for those who have been following both teams closely this season.  BYU has had some very close calls, including just last week against a weakened Utah squad, and was only a 3-point favorite heading into the game.  Meanwhile, Kansas sat a measly 0-5 in 1 score games this season, meaning the 3-6 record was a mirage for a team that could easily have been 6-3 in alignment with preseason expectations.  Kansas was fresh off of a blowout victory over a strong Iowa State squad and is peaking just as the schedule runs into the Big 12 contenders.  Once again, BYU found themselves in trouble late in the game, and for the first time this season, Kansas rose to the occasion and secured the victory.  This is a huge result for the Big 12, which is now in a lesser position hoping to secure multiple playoff bids.  The best hope at this point is for BYU to lose to Colorado in a close title game with SMU winning the ACC and serving as a buffer to keep the Cougars in the At Large bids.  Still a huge blow for both BYU and the Big 12.  Keep in mind if anyone tries to treat Kansas as an awful loss that the Jayhawks currently rate as the 36th strongest team in the country, a spot ahead of Vanderbilt, who beat Alabama and 2 spots ahead of Georgia Tech, who beat Miami.  It’s not as bad of a loss as you’ll likely hear when this result is discussed on Tuesday.

• Also, still alive in the Big 12 is Arizona State, who pulled way ahead early and held on to upset Kansas State to remain alive in the Big 12/CFP race.  In the ACC, Clemson likewise remained alive with a win over Pitt in an elimination game.  Both games likely don’t net the winner a playoff position, but hope remains alive for both the Sun Devils and Tigers to make a run to the 2024 CFP.

• Other meaningful results this weekend included a CFP eliminating loss for Washington State against New Mexico.  This result will hurt Boise State’s chances of jumping the ACC or Big 12 champion into the top 4 seeds, though the committee’s elevation of the Broncos because of the close Oregon loss may yield the actual resume assessment moot.  Louisville took an unexpected loss to Stanford, damaging the resumes of Notre Dame, Miami, and SMU, all of which were hoping to see the Cardinals reach 9-3 and the lower to mid-teens in the rankings.  In the SEC, LSU took an eliminating loss to Florida, and Missouri took a loss to the surging South Carolina Gamecocks.  Could South Carolina jump into the CFP mix with 3 losses?  It’s unlikely given the teams they’d remain behind who are likely to end up on the boundary, but it’s not impossible that when the committee makes their final At Large selection that South Carolina is amongst the teams under review for the bid.

Let’s take a look at the Week 12 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• Alright, let’s address the elephant in the room.  According to their overall resume to date, with a completely unbiased assessment the Indiana Hoosiers have fallen out of a fair CFP Playoff.  How did this happen?  Let’s examine.  Indiana’s team strength rating did not change substantially from week 11 to week 12.  Indiana was on a bye, so this objectively makes sense.  On raw resume, Indiana lost value.  When on a bye, Indiana’s raw resume didn’t substantially decrease in total value, but it didn’t increase either.  With other teams played and won games, their total raw resume value increased, meaning relative to other teams who won, Indiana fell a little further behind.  Last week we had Indiana at #8 in our rankings, with an At Large cut line one team behind (Miami at #10 with #9 BYU getting an Auto Bid).  This week Indiana finds themselves behind Miami as well as Notre Dame.  Notre Dame picked up a win over Virginia, which isn’t a huge resume booster, but with a tight boundary was enough to slide ahead of the Hoosiers.  How did Miami, also on a bye, jump ahead?  Three words: Full Season Reevaluation.  Miami, like Indiana, lost value on raw resume by not playing, but with each week comes a complete reevaluation of each team’s resume, and the teams that Miami has beaten this year played better and further elevated themselves this past weekend, whereas the teams that Indiana has beaten were unable to do so.  This means that Miami gets more credit for the wins they have accrued than last week’s evaluation afforded the Hurricanes.  What is the net result?  Indiana = OUT.

• While none sit within the Top 12, we are also going to spend a moment exploring the positioning of BYU, SMU, and Boise State.  Much will be made out of the ranking of Boise State and the Big 12/ACC leaders, with the possibility that Boise State could earn a top 4 seed and the playoff bye should they finish as a top 4 conference champion.  BYU is almost certain to remain ahead of SMU given the head-to-head win this season over the Mustangs.  The problem for BYU is that SMU sits behind Boise State, a positioning not supported by the team strength or raw resume data available to us.  BYU should remain ahead of both Boise State and SMU on merit, without needing special consideration, and if/when the committee drops the Cougars in behind the Broncos, understand that the result is not supported by the resume data.  BYU currently rates as a stronger team than Boise State, and has 3 great wins and 2 good wins vs Boise State only having 2 good wins.  The only gymnastics available for BYU are that UNLV, Boise’s strongest win, did beat Kansas on the road early in the season, and Kansas just ended BYU’s unbeaten season.  Still, on the whole the data backs an ordinal ranking of these teams with BYU ahead of SMU, then Boise State following in 3rd.

• Our last highlight for the week 12 rankings is the positioning of the 2-loss SEC teams ahead of many of the 1-loss contenders.  Schedule imbalance in the new era of college football is extremely important when assessing the resume of contending teams.  While Oregon has earned the #1 ranking on merit, a school like Indiana has not yet earned the right to sit ahead of teams like Georgia and Alabama, despite the losses that the Bulldogs and Tide have accrued.  Georgia and Alabama have both played 7 games more challenging than the toughest game on Indiana’s schedule to date.  Both teams are 5-2 in those games, with several highly impressive wins to their credit.  As we mentioned in the opener, it isn’t Indiana’s fault that the teams they play this year are not very good, but when assessing the overall resume there is more in play than a win-loss record.  When Georgia and Alabama sit behind the 1-loss contenders as well as unbeaten Indiana this week in the Committee Rankings, understand that the positioning of these teams is not supported by the resume data.

Unexpected results from Week 12 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Meaningful upsets this week include losses by BYU, Kansas State, and Washington State, all of which had playoff aspirations heading into the weekend.  BYU may not be out of the At Large picture yet, but the playoff prospects as a non-conference champion are on thin ice.

• The top upset of the weekend goes to Air Force upending Oregon State in a blowout victory!  This is the second weekend in a row that the Falcons earned the honors of largest upset, the first time we’ve seen a back-to-back upset king since we’ve been tracking upsets.  Congratulations to Air Force on the achievement!

With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?

• This week’s top championship odds go to Alabama, coming out of the 6th seed at 17.98%.  Alabama, Texas and Ohio State, the three strongest teams in the bracket, all sit on the same side, meaning the two best games of the playoff could be a quarterfinal and semifinal matchup.

• Tough luck to Notre Dame, who despite rating as the 7th strongest team in the country would hold only a 4.56% chance of winning the title, with a most likely path that includes playing the 1st, 3rd, 2nd and 4th strongest teams to earn the championship.  Talk about a gauntlet…

Now let’s highlight a few Week 13 games worth watching

Top Game:

• The top game this week features Ohio State hosting unbeaten Indiana.  It’s the Hoosiers first major resume building opportunity, and a win sends Indiana on a path to the Big Ten title game.  Ohio State still has a great shot to win the Big Ten, but a loss here and all hopes of a rematch with Oregon are dashed.  The only scenario where the loser of this game is unlikely to solidify a CFP bid is a blowout result, and with Ohio State projected as an 8.5-point favorite Indiana will need their best performance to keep it close.

• The other distinguished game of the day features BYU traveling to Arizona State with Big 12 and CFP implications for both teams.  BYU is looking to bounce back from a gut-wrenching loss to Kansas and remain in the CFP At Large discussion should they not win the Big 12.  Meanwhile, the Sun Devils find themselves with an opportunity to still play for the Big 12 if they win out and come through conference tiebreaker math ahead of other potential 10-2 teams.  Arizona State was picked to finish last in the Big 12, and the fact that they are not yet out of the conference title race at this point in the season is a marvel to behold.

• The top group of 5 game this week has to go to Army, finally facing a challenging opponent for the first time this season.  Notre Dame projects as a multi-touchdown favorite, but if Army can pull out the win the prospects of a CFP bid become very real.  This is a massive game for the CFP Auto Bid race.

That’s all we have for the Week 12.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)