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Welcome to the 2024 Week 10 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
Tuesday November 5th is a monumental day for the selection of candidates via a strict voting process, and we aren’t talking about the Presidential election. It’s time for the initial CFP Committee rankings to be released! We are in the first year of the 12-team playoff format, which means the dynamic of the first ranking release will be different from last year. With 7 At Large selections available, there will be increased meaning for the initial CFP rankings of the teams in the 10-20 range, as those in the upper teens will likely control their destiny, while those further down the rankings will need some help to make the playoffs. This will also be meaningful for the teams near the top of the rankings, as there will now be a buffer of sorts should the unexpected happen in the remainder of the season. Here’s a refresher on how the committee is chartered to arrive at their rankings.
The committee’s task will be to select the best teams leveraging several key data points to help distinguish amongst comparable teams. In the first rankings the committee will be charged with ranking teams based on an evaluation of performance on the field and will leverage strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparative outcomes amongst common opponents and other relevant factors that may have impacted the outcome of key games to support their rankings. The committee will discredit polls (like the AP) where initial rankings are established before competition has occurred. The committee will not use one single metric and will instead consider a wide variety of data and information. Teams will be set into pods of 6 where the top 3 teams will be ranked and the bottom 3 will drop into the next 6 team pod for ranking. Once this process is complete, they will have their top 25 for the week. Once the top 25 rankings are established, the committee will seed a hypothetical playoff with the top 5 conference champions and the top 7 highest ranked teams. It is unlikely the committee themselves will release a hypothetical playoff bracket as the season is still going, but ESPN almost certainly will represent the playoff picture according to the CFP rankings on Tuesday.
In the past the committee has explained their rankings by citing top 25 wins, wins over bowl eligible teams, strength of schedule, strength of record, the Eye Test, game control and injuries impacting results. It won’t be a surprise to see the committee share similar justifications in their initial rankings this year. Ultimately the committee trump card for ranking a team higher than most of America might think they should be is that the committee just thinks that team is stronger or not comparable to some of the teams below them. Also, note that the committee is chartered to reevaluate the season from scratch each single week. This is challenging to do, and often leads to stagnant rankings unless highly ranked teams lose. Perception bias is real, and sometimes it is simply hard to see movement as a result of that reevaluation. This will be where our rankings differ from those of the committee members. Data is live, and changes each week according to the results on the field. With each new result there is an opportunity to learn new information about how good a team’s resume is, both on strength and raw resume value. We will see movement between now and the end of the season in ways the committee fails to capture, and the hope is that we both arrive at the same place by season’s end. In the 4-team playoff era, there were plenty of examples where the committee rankings differed from those we captured, however the committee has yet to select and seed a playoff differently than how our rankings manifest. There is more opportunity to miss in the 12-team era, with head-to-head results more likely to influence playoff positioning, but the overall selection process should still align well. We’ll see how close the committee comes to our rankings below come Tuesday!
Quick Hitters:
Ohio State’s 20-13 win over Penn State is huge for a few reasons. For Ohio State, it seems the floor of the season is now either a 10-2 or 11-2 campaign with a win over likely 11-1 Penn State as a buffer. That’s sufficient to get into the playoffs and give the Buckeyes a shot at the title. This also positions Ohio State to control their own destiny in the expanded Big Ten with a path to a top 4 seed in the playoffs and the coveted bye week. For Penn State this is a missed opportunity and makes it challenging for Penn State to play for the Big Ten title. Still, 10-2 seems like a floor, which at worst will leave the Nittany Lions on the selection boundary. At 11-1 Penn State should have no problem earning an At Large selection and contending for a title. This is also a big result for 9-0 Indiana, who plays Ohio State but not Penn State. If Indiana can survive Michigan, then the floor of the season is likely an 11-1 regular season with a loss to Ohio State, who would definitely be in the CFP with enough buffer for the Hoosiers to slide in behind as an At Large team. Were Ohio State to have lost to Penn State, and then beat Indiana, the Hoosiers would have been sitting behind 10-2 Ohio State in the queue for a CFP selection due to the committee’s usage of Head-to-Head results to inform seeding. At this point the Big Ten only has four real CFP contenders, and this was the best-case result for the conference hoping to see all four represented in the playoffs.
From best-case to worst-case, the Big 12 did not have an enjoyable day for a conference hoping to be more than a single bid league. On Saturday unbeaten Iowa State gave up a late score to succumb to Texas Tech, as did Kansas State with a late score putting Houston ahead for good. For several weeks we’ve represented three Big 12 teams either in our CFP or on the boundary. Following these upset losses that dynamic is likely to change. At this point it seems unlikely that a non-SEC team will make the playoffs with 3+ losses. For the Big 12 contenders, 2-losses could be enough to leave them on the outside looking in. The boundary will be a challenge for teams who aren’t holding a meaningful out of conference win. BYU is looking good with SMU playing well in the ACC. Iowa State is on the fence with Iowa sitting at 6-3. If the Hawkeyes can get to 9-3 that should provide some support for the Cyclones. Meanwhile, Kansas State, Colorado and Arizona State are in a lesser position. Kansas State picked up what looked like a great “non-conference” win over ranked Arizona, only to see Arizona plummet to 3-6. Colorado was wiped off the field by what has turned out to be a bad Nebraska team. Arizona State holds a close win over 2-7 Mississippi State and 4-4 Texas State, neither of which will propel the Sun Devils anywhere. Kansas State and Arizona State still play, which will eliminate one of the two, and Farmagheddon will give one of Iowa State and Kansas State another loss as well. The road to multiple bids is a long one for the parity filled Big 12.
In the ACC, Clemson bowed out of the hypothetical 8-0 three-way tie atop the conference standings taking a huge loss to Louisville. This leaves Miami and SMU on a collision course. If both teams win out to make the ACC title game, it’s likely that both will make the CFP. SMU needs BYU to keep winning though, as a lessened BYU at or around the boundary could remain ahead of an 11-2 Mustang squad for At Large selection. Pitt, previously unbeaten prior to the blowout loss to SMU, still has a chance to contend for a CFP spot, but the Panthers will need to win out from here given the lack of raw resume they are carrying to date. Clemson is also not out of the CFP hunt, but at 10-2 there wouldn’t be a lot on the raw resume enabling Clemson to move past other 2-loss contenders. Clemson needs some help at this point.
In the SEC, there are 8 teams with a chance to finish with 2 or less losses on the season. Outside of maybe Missouri, any 2-loss SEC team seems to be almost guaranteed to make the CFP. There remains a path for 7 of the contenders to reach double digit wins in the regular season. If the contenders avoid all upsets, the only results required are Ole Miss beating Georgia (very possible), Georgia beating Tennessee (very possible) and Texas A&M beating Texas (very possible). The 7 teams at 10-2 on the season would be Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, and the winner of Alabama/LSU. How would the CFP Committee rank 7 10-2 SEC squads heading into the conference championships? I have no earthly idea!
Let’s take a look at the Week 10 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
Ohio State takes a major step forward on overall resume, but it isn’t enough for the Buckeyes to climb to the #2 spot ahead of Georgia, yet. The defensive performance was strong enough for Ohio State to separate on strength ahead of Oregon, and the road win was enough to put Ohio State comfortably in the CFP for the first time this season.
There are 11 teams almost certainly in the CFP picture at this point in the season if you include Alabama, who continues to remain head and shoulders above the other 2-loss teams. Much will be made out of the standings for BYU and Indiana relative to the 1-loss contenders Texas, Tennessee, and Penn State. On overall resume to date, we have BYU ahead of the 1-loss trio and Indiana behind the trio. There is a good chance the committee will flip these two citing Indiana’s game control. While we have Indiana ahead on team strength, BYU’s raw resume is far superior and should merit a higher ranking.
Despite Texas A&M being ahead of Notre Dame on overall resume, the head-to-head result should ensure that the Fighting Irish sit ahead in the committee rankings. These two resumes are extremely close to that of the 8-1 SMU Ponies. If SMU sits behind Texas A&M and Notre Dame that will create a challenging barrier to At Large selection for SMU.
Following the loss to Texas Tech, it’ll be interesting to see how many of the 2-loss contenders Iowa State falls behind. One thing is for sure, Iowa State has now regressed for several weeks in a row on team strength rating, a worrying signal this late into the season for the Cyclones CFP prospects with a few challenging games still to come.
Unexpected results from Week 10 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
The State of Texas featured 4 of our top 5 upsets of the week, including Rice’s stunning win over Navy late Saturday evening. The pair of Houston and Texas Tech produced perhaps the most influential upsets of the week against the Farmagheddon pair of Iowa State and Kansas State.
With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?
Welcome to the CFP Indiana! This week is a great example of the math for a 5th seeded team to make a run in the playoffs, with Ohio State carrying the second best odds to win the national title. A second round matchup of the 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, and 4/5 seeds is a possibility, but this bracket does run us into a 1/3 and 2/4 semifinal pairing, which feels odd but is appropriate given the seeding structure. This is a great case for why each round should be reseeded with high seeds selecting a preferred opponent amongst the lower seeded teams to maximize advantage.
Now let’s highlight a few Week 11 games worth watching
Top Games:
Our top game of the week features a pick ‘em with Georgia heading to Oxford to play Ole Miss. This game tightening up on projection makes for one of the highest game quality scores we will see for the remainder of the season, and we have Georgia winning with a win probability of only 50.1%!!
Alabama and LSU will play in what could amount to an elimination game for CFP contention. Our bet is that the top 9-win team will be out more often than in with the 12-team format, so if either of these teams wants a crack at the title there is no more margin of error.
The top Group of 5 game this week features unbeaten Army traveling to Denton for a matchup with North Texas. We have Army as a 10-point favorite in this one, so there’s a chance it’ll be close entering the 4th quarter. Keep an eye out for this one if close!
That’s all we have for the Week 10. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
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