2024 Week 1 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 1 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

Wow!  We are back with another season already underway.  The summer break has flown by and almost everyone (sorry Ball State) has played at least one game in the 2024 season.  So much has happened since we last left off in 2023, the playoff has changed, a conference basically died, and Florida State went from winning every game they played to losing every game (sorry Seminoles!).  We won’t cover everything, but will highlight that the change in playoff structure will impact our late season resume coverage.  No longer will we be focused on the narrow path each team has to a top four CFP ranking; we’ll now have expanded coverage on the full at-large pool of teams that will earn a spot in the CFP.  Consider this the College Football equivalent of the NCAA Tournament “Bubble Watch” where each team’s overall resume is understood to determine playoff standings.  There is a good chance that this year will mark the first where we do not capture the full playoff correctly since our foundation.  Still, we’ll do our best to tell the story of the season through neutral eyes with a fresh reevaluation of the season each week.  Let’s begin with a quick recap of the season to date.

Quick Hitters:

Week 0

• Georgia Tech stuns Florida State in Ireland to start the season, perhaps demonstrating the hangover Florida State was feeling after the bitter taste the CFP snub and subsequent obliteration at the hands of Georgia at the close of the 2023 season.  It’s now also clear that FSU is hoping to join the Big 12 because there are no teams from Georgia in the league.

• ACC newcomer SMU enters the season as a dark horse selection to win the conference and proceeds to nearly lose to dreadful Nevada on the road, rescuing themselves in the last minutes of the game to avoid joining Florida State as a Week 0 Power 4 loser.

Week 1 Thursday

• Minnesota misses a kick at the horn to beat North Carolina, who lost QB Johnson for the season.  Neither team leaves happy in the first P4 vs P4 non-conference game of the season.

• Colorado again starts the season in the spotlight against FCS power North Dakota State, and again starts the season 1-0.  The QB matchup in Week 2 between Shedeur Sanders and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola will be must see TV.

• In the “are they actually good” category, North Carolina State enters the 4th quarter trailing Western Carolina at home before scoring 21 4th quarter points to pull away for the win.

Week 1 Friday

• Two more entries into the “are they actually good” category as Michigan State struggled to fend off Florida Atlantic, and as TCU was forced to come back in a win over Stanford.

Week 1 Saturday

• Georgia 34 – Clemson 3 … Ouch!  Are the glory days gone?  So long as Clemson refuses to take transfers it might be…

• What the heck was going on with Oregon?  Needing a 4th down conversion late in the 4th to avoid giving Idaho the ball in a 1 score game?  Not the convincing start the Ducks were looking for.

• Notre Dame is not going to have the schedule to build a super strong raw resume, but if Texas A&M remains a CFP contender this road win will bolster Notre Dame deep into the season.  The Irish, absent some shocking upsets, are likely to be in or very near the CFP.

• Is Miami good or is Florida just that bad?  Florida could be in for a LONG season.  What does this mean for Miami if Florida goes 4-8 on the season?  It’s ok to react to Miami now, but don’t forget to reevaluate if Florida turns out to be really bad.

• Another “are they good or is the other team bad” game featured Vanderbilt over expected ACC contender Virginia Tech, with the Commodores winning in overtime in a pretty large upset.  This was yet another faceplant by the ACC, who is no longer one of the 4 strongest conferences by power ratings.

• Now for a few “Yikes, what happened here?!” games.  South Carolina absolutely survived a scare against Old Dominion in a 23-19 home win.  UCLA didn’t score a single point in the first half of a 16-13 road win over Hawaii.  Not the statement performance the Big Ten newcomer was looking for.  If you thought either of those were bad, don’t look into what happened in Lubbock, where Abilene Christian had a slant pass wide open in overtime to defeat Texas Tech, but couldn’t convert allowing the Red Raiders to SURVIVE their opener.  For a team hoping to contend in the new Big 12 that was almost a shocking upset and certainly the closest call for a Power 4 team over an FCS opponent.

Week 1 Sunday/Monday

• Does USC have a defense?  If so, watch out!  Lincoln Riley can gameplan a mean offense.  In years the defense has been average to good, his teams are almost always postseason contenders.

• How bad is Florida State?  Boston College demolished the Seminoles in a 28-13 game that was not that close.  Florida State fell in the AP Poll from top 10 to not receiving a single vote in a single poll, which is quite frankly shocking.

Speaking of the AP Poll, how about the two Florida State topplers Georgia Tech and Boston College both getting some love?  Georgia Tech beat Florida State at a neutral site on a walk off field goal.  Boston College demolished Florida State in Tallahassee.  Who did the AP voters rank higher?  Georgia Tech?  That doesn’t make sense.  The only reason we were so impressed with Georgia Tech is because we thought Florida State was really good.  The Boston College game was more of a validation that Florida State is actually really bad than it was likewise confirmation for Boston College being good.  That is the only explanation I can think of that would yield Georgia Tech over Boston College in the rankings.  It’s a very puzzling move by the AP voters in the Week 1 Poll.  Did either team make our week 1 top 25?  Let’s find out.

Let’s take a look at the Week 1 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• Sometimes we make objectively great points that hold on their own merits and are reflected in the data we are looking at, and then sometimes the data turns around and throws a pie in your face.  That’s what just happened to us.  About that Boston College over Georgia Tech argument, why is Georgia Tech also ahead in our resume rankings?  Did Boston College not receive more credit for beating Florida State on the road?  Actually, no!  What differentiated the two teams was the rating system preseason priors favoring Georgia Tech over Boston College, and Georgia Tech making up the raw resume differential by also beating Georgia State, not a particularly valuable win, but enough to overcome the neutral vs road win over a common opponent.  Both raw resumes rate as top 5 resumes in the country, but Georgia Tech sits slightly ahead.

• On Twitter/X, we projected that our top 5 overall resumes after week 1 would be Georgia, Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, and Miami, in that order.  Michigan slipped into that top 5 barely ahead of Miami off of a home win over Fresno State that is surprisingly more valuable than I thought it would be.  If Michigan wins again next week over Texas, the Wolverines could move on up into the top spot!

• No team carries a raw resume worse than Florida State, who has lost twice now in games they still project as favorites in according to the strength data.  The raw resumes take several weeks to really shake out, but it is wild seeing Florida State on the wrong boundary from a raw resume perspective.

Unexpected results from Week 1 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

Composite Team Strength Rankings

Now let’s highlight a few Week 2 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

Game of the Week:

• #10 Michigan vs #3 Texas – The 3rd best game of the whole season currently behind Ohio State vs Oregon and Georgia vs Alabama could prove to be a key buffer for one of these teams should they absorb a few losses in conference play.  The winner of this game will almost certainly be in the playoff mix at the Thanksgiving CFP Rankings.

That’s all we have for the Week 1.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)