2023 Week 7 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2023 Week 7 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

The past week of football action produced several amazing moments, including a 29-0 comeback win, not one but two Hail Mary winning scores, and a season defining win in our top-rated game of the week!

Oregon and Washington were evenly matched on Saturday, going back and forth throughout the contest. In the 3rd quarter Washington created separation on a 17-yard Penix to Odunze touchdown pass to extend the lead to 29-18. Oregon did not respond immediately, but eventually the Ducks hit on a pair of touchdowns to take a 33-29 lead. Washington would then march the length of the field to set up first and goal from the Oregon 8-yard line. After a 7-yard Dillon Johnson run Washington would go no further, getting stopped on 2nd, 3rd and 4th and goal without scoring. Oregon would drive out just past midfield working to kill clock and maintain their 4-point lead, but a 3rd and 2 run from the Washington 46 would fail to pick up the first down setting up a key decision for Oregon coach Dan Lanning. Punt, and Washington would have roughly 2 minutes to go and win the game needing to drive the full length of the field for a touchdown, something they had not done since early in the 3rd quarter. Go for the first, and if you get it, you win the game. Go for the first and miss it, and Washington would have the ball at midfield with plenty of clock to go and win the game. Oregon all season has played aggressive in these moments, and on Saturday they went aggressive again. Bo Nix’s pass fell incomplete, and after 2 big pass plays from Penix, including an 18-yard strike again to Odunze, Washington had scored the go ahead touchdown. It’s entirely possible that Oregon drops the game even if they punt, but the ramifications of that decision were amplified by the quick Washington score. Oregon still had time to recover from that result, and marched into field goal position with a chance to send the game to overtime. The 43-yard field goal attempt would miss wide right, and the Washington Huskies would move to 6-0 on the season with a mammoth win.

Some believe this result should be enough to move Washington to #1 in the AP Poll. We aren’t quite there yet, and we can explain more later once we get into the resume evaluation.

Quick Hitters:

• Notre Dame / USC

  • The USC roller coaster has been a frightening ride at times this year with plenty of close games that highlighted the deficiencies within the Trojan Defense, but in each test the Offense would do enough to secure the victory. We wondered what would happen if the Offense struggled against a good team, and now we know. Notre Dame flustered Caleb Williams all night and converted turnovers into points in route to a 48-20 drubbing of USC. It’s a deep Pac-12 with plenty of resume value available, but it’ll be a long climb for USC to find their way into the playoffs now. More likely the Trojans will play spoiler to someone else’s playoff bid, much like Notre Dame did Saturday night.

• North Carolina / Miami

  • Miami inexplicably lost last week to Georgia Tech when taking a knee would have secured the win. This week they were just outright beaten by a North Carolina team that has a lot of calories already accrued in their raw resume. UNC looked the part and remains unbeaten for another week.

• Oregon State / UCLA

  • In what amounted to an elimination game for the Pac-12 Title race, Oregon State pounded UCLA early, and then kept the Bruins at arm’s length for the remainder of the game. The Washington State loss hurts their odds massively, but when Oregon State plays their best, they are capable of beating anyone in the conference. Don’t be surprised if they are in contention for the Pac-12 title game with 1 or 2 games to go.

• Pitt / Louisville

  • Last week Louisville was riding high after demolishing Notre Dame. This week, it’s a loss to lowly Pitt. If Notre Dame was the peak, Pitt was the valley. There is still a lot to play for, but with a lighter raw resume Louisville might be at the back of the line if there are a handful of 1-loss contenders late in the season looking for a playoff bid.

• Air Force / Wyoming

  • In the Group of 5 race to the NY6 Bowls, Air Force suddenly takes the pole position after taking out Mountain West contender Wyoming. The Falcons have been riding high this season, and with James Madison ineligible for a bowl game, and Tulane having lost to Ole Miss, Air Force can run the table and get a shot at one of the big boys come January. The win over Wyoming was a great start.

• Tulane / Memphis

  • Speaking of Tulane, the loss to Ole Miss was not as egregious as one might believe, and the road win over Memphis ensured that the AAC title race would likely boil down to Tulane, SMU and UTSA. Tulane has the talent to run the table the rest of the way, and if Air Force stumbles the NY6 opportunity will be there again for the Green Wave.

• Oklahoma State / Kansas

  • Will the real Oklahoma State please stand up? The Cowboys started the season with a pair of unconvincing wins before getting blown out by South Alabama and dropping their Big 12 opener at Iowa State, but OSU has rallied with quality home wins over Kansas State and Kansas. Mike Gundy is a wizard as a home underdog, and the Cowboys have pulled off another stunner. If Oklahoma State were to upset Oklahoma in Bedlam, the rest of the schedule is manageable. A run at the Big 12 is not out of the picture yet, and that is just amazing.

• Arizona / Washington State

  • Arizona lost on the road in OT to Mississippi State, then Arizona dropped a close game at home to Washington, then another OT loss on the road at USC. We’ve said Arizona was going to ruin someone’s Pac-12 hopes with a big win, and that happened this week in Pullman, WA with a 44-6 blowout over Washington State to send the Cougars to 1-2 in Pac-12 play. This will not be Arizona’s last big Pac-12 win this season.

• Rutgers / Michigan State

  • It wasn’t a high-profile game, but 21 unanswered 4th quarter points can’t be ignored. Rutgers moves to 5-2 with an opportunity to go bowling if they can pick up another win. The schedule is brutal, but it only takes 1 to get to 6. They’ll have an opportunity to do so against 2-4 Indiana next week.

• Stanford / Colorado

  • Speaking of going bowling, are we sure Colorado is going to make it to 6 wins? The Buffalos looked to be well on their way to win number 5, leading 29-0 at the half, but a 26-0 Stanford run and a closing field goal sent the game into overtime. In double OT Shedeur Sanders threw a goal line interception, and a Stanford field goal would secure the 4th largest Pac-12 come from behind win of all time. The loss drops Colorado to 4-3, and the closing schedule is tough. Colorado needs to pick up 2 wins over UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State and Utah just to make a bowl game. None of those teams are invulnerable, but the path to 6 is not a guarantee. There is work to do for Coach Prime’s Buffs.

• Colorado State / Boise State

  • Just a few dozen miles further north, Colorado State had the opposite experience as their hated rivals had, trailing 30-10 against Mountain West power Boise State with 6 minutes to play. CSU would march 75 yards in 2:11 to close the gap to 13, then an onside kick would lead to another score to make it 30-24. Boise would go 3-and-out, and 32 seconds later on the last play of the game the Rams would connect on a Hail Mary completion to tie the game! Following a celebration penalty, CSU would connect on their extended XP to win the game 31-30.

• Houston / West Virginia

  • In a week of crazy finishes, none were wilder than the Holgerson bowl between West Virginia and Houston. The two teams would combine for more 4th quarter points than the 1st three combined, and despite trailing 35-24 late, WVU would score, force a punt, and have an opportunity to win it late. On 4th and 10 from the 50-yard line, Garrett Green connected with Hudson Clement, who would race past several Cougar defenders on his way to the endzone for a touchdown with 12 seconds left in the game to give WVU the 39-35 lead. Green would draw a celebration penalty, meaning Houston would have the ball near midfield following the kickoff. After a quick 8-yard out putting the ball at the West Virginia 49, Donovan Smith would toss his own strike to the endzone, and following an initial tip WR Stephon Johnson would secure the catch and the victory. In a week with big comebacks, late scores, and Hail Mary finishes, this one had them all, and Houston walked away with their first Big 12 conference win.

Let’s take a look at the Week 7 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• Oklahoma continues to lead the way, but coming off of the bye week means there is a lot of company near the bottom left corner now. The Sooners continue to be ranked by the AP Poll below where there resume currently stands. Where are the Washington stans calling for OU to be ranked #1 in the AP? We don’t see them in the media, but there are over 20 rating systems that have the Sooners sitting pretty atop their strength ratings.

• As predicted last week, the winner of Washington/Oregon did take a massive leap up the resume rankings, and with Washington already ahead on raw resume prior to their win, the Huskies have moved all the way up to #2!

• Ohio State sits at #3 with a chance to climb to #1 should they win this coming weekend. If Penn State wins, lookout for the Nittany Lions to press for the #1 spot.

• Florida State continues to improve in the strength ratings, which helps their case for playoff consideration. FSU currently sits #4 after another big win on Saturday.

• At this point, Michigan is doing all they can do to move up, but the season for the Wolverines will really come down to the games against Ohio State and Penn State. Right now, those are the 2 highest rated games of the entire season.

• While Georgia is also struggling on Raw Resume, the slip in the team strength ratings is highly surprising. Only 4 of the 63 rating systems at the time this post was written have the Bulldogs at #1. Meanwhile, 43 of the 63 AP Voters still role with Georgia at the top. Some may call it unfair that the AP Voters are unwilling to move off of teams until they lose, but that’s the reality we live in. The strength and resume ratings don’t care about the name on the jersey, or what happened the last 2 years, and as of right now Georgia is not the top team by a large margin.

Resume Comparison:

Oklahoma / Washington / Ohio State / Florida State

• The resumes for Oklahoma and Washington are earily similar. Both started the season with 4 low value wins, then picked up a nice resume boosting win over a team not many expected to be good, then a massive win over a great team. Oklahoma’s big win was just better, and the strength ratings like OU a bit more as well. Ohio State? Same boat. 4 wins of little value, 1 win over a good team, and an all star caliber win over Notre Dame, which is not as good as the neutral site win over Texas for OU. The strength ratings do like Ohio State better, but not by enough to put them ahead. Of course that is likely to change with a win next week over Penn State. Florida State meanwhile trades the “1 ok & 1 amazing” win structure for 2 very good wins. It’s enough to keep them in the mix on raw resume, but the dispersion of team strength ratings clearly shows a drop off at the top which is what holds FSU behind.

Top 25 as voted on by the strength rating systems:

• The rating systems still show a 4-team cluster at the top, then a 3-team chase cluster followed by a drop off to Georgia at #8.

• Ohio State sits at #1, but of the 6 most correlated rating systems (for now) not a single one of them voted the Buckeyes #1. Of the top 20 most correlated rating systems, only 4 put Ohio State at the top. That’s 1 less than Michigan and 2 less than Oklahoma.

• Speaking of Oklahoma, it’s amazing to see 5 teams receive a vote for #1 in the AP poll, and none are OU. Meanwhile, nearly a third of the computer rating systems have the Sooners at #1. It’s possible the negative perception of Alabama devalues the win for Texas, which devalues the win for Oklahoma. Also, OU wasn’t expected to be as good as they have shown this year, and the AP stigma of leaving teams at the top until they lose is still in effect.

• Georgia falling out of the 2nd tier pack is the surprise of the week. The two-time defending National Champions are stull the frontrunners in the SEC, but the strength ratings are not convinced of the dominance we saw in previous years. Georgia has the benefit of the doubt from the AP voters, but they shouldn’t. Each new season is a blank slate and rankings need to be earned. So far it seems UGA has more work to do to earn their spot.

Unexpected results from Week 7 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Louisville, Maryland and Colorado would be 10+ point favorites by our count if those games were replayed, which makes that trio stand out, but no single game went further against the projected rematch spread than Arizona’s drubbing of Washington State. Would Arizona win a rematch? Who knows. Maybe the rating systems will catch up to the demise of Washington State and the rise of Arizona, but for now it carries the largest upset margin of the week.

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

• Coming off of that huge win at Washington State, Arizona is the week’s largest riser in the composite team strength ratings. Not surprisingly, on the other end of that unexpected result, Washington State is this week’s biggest faller, joined in the double digit fall range by Louisville, who was stunned by Pitt.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 8 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

• If we thought Texas vs Oklahoma was any good, if we were mesmerized by Oregon vs Washington, this week’s top game on paper is a step above both of them. Ohio State hosting Penn State rates as the 3rd best game of the entire season, only behind the games each of these teams play with Michigan. The Big Ten is not deep, but the trio at the top are all dominant. The strength rating models like Ohio State, but our spread is still less than a field goal. There aren’t many games in a season like this, so enjoy it while it's here.

• The Pac-12 bloodbath continues with big games for both USC/Utah and Oregon/Washington State. The Pac-12 is super deep this year and all of these teams are going to need to win to stay in the mix for the conference title. Someone is getting eliminated this week.

• Alabama will have a shot at redemption against a weakened Tennessee team after last year’s thrilling result. The loser of this one is basically out of the running for the SEC title, so it’s a big game for a pair of teams hoping to dethrone Georgia.

• Duke has a chance to reassert themselves as ACC contenders. The Blue Devils are still unbeaten in conference, but the loss to Notre Dame put a damper on season expectations. Now it’s a road trip to Florida State and an opportunity to shock the world again. FSU better watch out in this one.

• The best Group of 5 game this week is going to provide a healthy dose of MACtion where anything can happen on any given week. Miami Ohio has yet to lose to a team not named Miami, and they seem to be the class of the MAC this year. Toledo has been a perennial MAC contender and should put up a great fight in this one. We have Miami Ohio by less than a field goal.

That’s all we have for the Week 7. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)