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Welcome to the 2023 Week 6 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
The highlight of the weekend was the Red River Rivalry, where the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners battled it out. The story of the game was missed opportunities and mistakes that went back and forth right to the last score of the game. For Oklahoma, it was giving up a fake punt for a first down, getting a punt blocked for a touchdown, a blown 4th and 1 conversion, and a missed 45-yard field goal. For Texas, it was an opening drive interception leading to a touchdown, another pick in the redzone, a lost fumble, 1st and goal from the 1 and getting stopped for no points, and the final defensive play giving up a 2 receiver to 1 defender matchup that led to the game winning score. The game was absolutely won, but whoever the loser was, it was going to hurt. There is a very real chance this game is replayed in the Big 12 title game. We have Texas favored over their remaining 6 games by 29 (Houston), 22 (BYU), 18 (Kansas State), 20.5 (TCU), 21.5 (Iowa State) and 20 (Texas Tech). It’s basically 50/50 odds that Texas will be 11-1 going into the Big 12 Title Game. Oklahoma meanwhile would need to lose twice to miss out, and the odds of that are very low at this point. An Arlington rematch awaits.
Quick Hitters:
Oklahoma / Texas
Georgia / Kentucky
Here comes Georgia! After underwhelming in their first 2 SEC games, Georgia finally demonstrates the dominance expected from a two-time defending champion. Still Georgia is only 5th in the composite team strength ratings, but they are back on the rise again. Kentucky had a huge opportunity to do something here, but this game was never in doubt. This Georgia team can win the title again.
Ohio State / Maryland
Maryland had the early 10-0 lead, and scored to go up 17-10 in the 3rd quarter, but Ohio State finally woke up and ran off 27 consecutive points to win this one comfortably. We are still waiting for this Ohio State team to play a big game where there isn’t a moment where they look vulnerable. It hasn’t happened yet.
USC / Arizona
Speaking of looking vulnerable, will USC ever field a defense? This seems like the more potent version of the Patrick Mahomes Texas Tech squads, capable of outscoring anyone no matter what happens on the other side of the ball, but with more weapons on offense than Pat ever had. We said Arizona would upset someone big this year. It wasn’t Washington. It wasn’t USC (barely). It’ll happen eventually.
Louisville / Notre Dame
What rough schedule luck for Notre Dame! Ohio State? Unbeaten at the time of the game. Duke? Unbeaten at the time of the game. Louisville? Unbeaten at the time of the game. Up next? Unbeaten USC. Brutal! Meanwhile, Louisville finally picks up a statement win that was not in doubt. The road win at NC State was nice, but this was meaningful. Time to make a run in the ACC.
Alabama / Texas A&M
There were moments where it looked like Texas A&M might win this one, but Alabama was too good on the defensive line and shut things down late to secure the win. Alabama is on their way to represent the SEC West, pending whether LSU can keep up and spoil the party again this season.
UCLA / Washington State
The Pac-2 duo are now both with a conference loss after Washington State couldn’t complete a comeback at UCLA. In a very deep Pac-12, we currently have unbeaten Oregon, unbeaten Washington, unbeaten USC, and now 1-loss UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State and Utah, with UCLA > Washington State > Oregon State > Utah > UCLA.
Georgia Tech / Miami
Uhh what?! Miami needed to take a knee and win, but instead didn’t recognize the clock opportunity and ran the ball instead. They fumbled. Then Miami gave up a 44-yard TD with 1 second to play to lose the game. It’s not quite Baylor losing to UNLV, but it’s pretty dang close. At least Baylor was trying to run up the score to send a message before fumbling at the goal line and giving up a return TD to lose. This was just incompetence, and now Miami is unbeaten no longer.
LSU / Missouri
LSU is the discount version of USC, which is why they have 2 losses on the season. Otherwise, if you squint, they are the same. Potent offense lead by a dynamic dual threat QB, and a defense that couldn’t catch a snail with an 11-person search party. LSU did enough to win the Tiger Bowl, securing the win on a late pick-six.
Wyoming / Fresno State
In the battle for Group of 5 supremacy, the Wyoming Cowboys have taken pole position. Air Force may present a serious threat, and you can never count out Boise State making a run, but it seems like the Mountain West at a minimum runs through Laramie.
Let’s take a look at the Week 6 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
The Red River Rivalry winner Oklahoma has moved all the way up to #1 in our resume rankings! The Sooners have a LOT of rating systems voting them highly which elevates their strength rating, and the win over Texas now usurps the Longhorn’s road win over Alabama as the top win of the season (by less than a tenth of a point in game value!!!).
Texas meanwhile falls all the way to only #2! Some may claim this is a sign of Big 12 bias, but it’s anything but. These teams are good, and the resumes are great!
Ohio State sits right where the AP voters have them at #3. The raw resume could use some work after the Notre Dame win lost some luster over the weekend. Still, the Buckeyes are in a great position for now!
Alabama slides up to #4, with the wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M adding a lot of value to the raw resume. There are some big names below that are playing great but without a lot of raw resume value, meaning the teams they played just happen to not be that great.
Resume Comparison:
How do our #1 and #2 compare against the AP #1 and #2 on overall resume? There doesn’t seem to be a lot different other than the wins over Alabama (by Texas) and Texas (by Oklahoma). It is not Michigan’s fault that their schedule is as weak as it is. They are doing what they are supposed to do. There’s a reason they still rate as the strongest team in the country. It would be different though if they had already played Ohio State or Penn State and demonstrated their strength in a big win. That’s something both Texas and Oklahoma have been able to do, and that’s why they rank ahead.
Alabama sits a spot ahead of Florida State. But wait you say, Florida State has two of the biggest wins of the season! How can Alabama be ahead on Raw Resume?! LSU’s D is not good. That has become abundantly clear. That hurts their own strength rating, and devalues the FSU week 1 win. Clemson? Are they any good? Clemson just pulled off the decisive and dominant 17-12 win over Wake Forest (sarcasm intended). Maybe they aren’t really that great after all. Are LSU and Clemson still good? Sure, but you know who is about equally as good if not better? Ole Miss (who beat LSU) and Texas A&M. Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss cancel out. Virginia Tech and USF cancel out. Now you have a loss to Texas and win over Mississippi State vs a win over Boston College (barely). That’s a wash at best for FSU, and you now know Ole Miss > LSU. Keep winning and things change, but Alabama is ahead for now.
A preview of one of the top resumes next week following the HUGE matchup coming this week. Someone is about to make a leap up the rankings.
Fun Notes:
Michigan, Penn State and Georgia sitting comfortably in the “ain’t played nobody” range of top teams needing a boost on raw resume to climb the rankings. They are as high as their collective strength can take them.
Wyoming is a clear frontrunner in the G5 NY6 bowl race, but look at James Madison, ineligible for a bowl this year, but very much in the race for “best G5” distinction.
Purple Wildcats are converging, with Kansas State and Kentucky tightening.
With the exception of Michigan and Maryland, you can throw a blanked over almost all schools whose logo is a large M of some sort. (Memphis, Minnesota, Miami OH, Marshall, Mississippi State)
Rivals Missouri and Kansas are converging again.
UMass now off of the right boundary!
Top 25 as voted on by the strength rating systems:
When you have strength rating systems, some will be slow to react to the season and some will over react. This week we see a lot of the over reacting models loving the Oklahoma Sooners, who have a whopping 17 first place votes (so far) with 51 rating systems reporting at the time of this recap. That’s not enough to move Oklahoma to #1, as Michigan and Ohio State battle for that distinction. Michigan sits ahead for now, but there are roughly 22 “votes” still outstanding, so either one may wind up in the 1 spot come Tuesday morning. It’s an exciting 3-way race for sure!
A note on the AP rankings. Notre Dame sits behind Duke, whom Notre Dame beat last week. Who did Notre Dame lose to? Louisville, who rates as stronger than both Notre Dame and Duke. Who else did ND lose to? Ohio State, the current #2. Duke isn’t objectively better than Notre Dame according to the rating systems, and Duke lost to Notre Dame. Duke should be ranked behind Notre Dame.
Unexpected results from Week 6 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
Oklahoma State over Kansas State
Georgia Tech over Miami
UConn over Rice
FAU over Tulsa
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Oklahoma State turning into a yoyo, having been on the other end of this highlight already this season.
Miami. Oof. Self-inflicted wounds are the worst.
Now let’s highlight a few Week 7 games worth watching (Top 50 games)
The Pac-12 kicks into high gear this week with Washington hosting Oregon in a top 5 game of the season. This one is for front runner status in the conference in maybe the deepest year ever. Huge stakes in this one!
Notre Dame now gets their 4th straight game against an unbeaten team, this time with USC coming to town. Can the USC D stand tall in their first major game of the season.
Tennessee fell flat against Florida early in the season. The Volunteers haven’t done a ton since to suggest they are about to make a run, but if they can manhandle Texas A&M, who just pushed Alabama, it would go a long way. Put up or shut up game here.
Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Oregon State and UCLA now play what would normally be an elimination game in conference, but with how deep the Pac-12 is there’s a very real chance of severe cannibalization. It starts here for one of these very good teams.
Wyoming has been the talk of the G5 after another impressive win, and now unbeaten Air Force stands in the way. This one could determine the Mountain West and a NY6 bowl berth. Massive G5 stakes here.
That’s all we have for the Week 6. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
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