2023 Week 5 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2023 Week 5 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

It was another fantastic week of college football with several top teams scratching and clawing to remain in the hunt for the College Football Playoffs. There were 3 ranked upsets according to the AP Poll, and another couple of very close calls. It was also a week of massive late comebacks, some of which were alive until a final onside kick late, and some that made it through to victory. How did things shake out? Let’s take a look at some of the top games played this weekend.

In our top-rated game of the week, Notre Dame traveled into North Carolina looking to bounce back from their heartbreaking last second loss to Ohio State in week 4. Opposite the Fighting Irish were the Duke Blue Devils, sitting at 4-0 with a resume featuring a strong win over Clemson followed by a trio of games that weren’t going to tell us much about how good they really are. Notre Dame looked like the better team early on, marching 82-yards down the field on their opening possession for a touchdown. Notre Dame would punt on their second possession, but kicked a field goal on their 3rd to take a 10-0 lead. Duke meanwhile missed a 38-yard field goal on their opening possession and followed it up with an immediate interception on drive number 2 to gift Notre Dame an extra 3 points. A 7-3 game was instead 10-0 after the pair of Blue Devil mistakes. Duke would also miss a 25-yard kick going into the half and trail 10-0.

Notre Dame would open the second half with another field goal to go up 13-0, and then the momentum of the game would change. Duke would drive 75-yards in 11 plays capped off by a Jordan Waters 1-yard run for the touchdown, closing the gap to 6-points. Two possessions later and Duke would again drive the length of the field to produce the go-ahead score. Up 14-13, Duke would force a 3-and-out and take the ball back with 7:58 to play. The Blue Devils would burn 5:23 off the clock marching down to the Notre Dame 33, where they faced 4th and 6. Having missed 2 much shorter kicks earlier in the game, and not trusting the kicking game, Duke elected to pooch punt rather than go for the win to secure an additional 28 yards of field position before giving Notre Dame the ball back. The Fighting Irish would have just under 2:30 to drive 95-yards to produce a game winning score. For a moment, the drive didn’t look like it would last longer than a single play, with QB Sam Hartman nearly getting sacked in the endzone before throwing the ball in the general direction of one of his receivers. Instead, a Duke pass interference call came in and the Notre Dame drive was off and running. Notre Dame would convert on a 3rd and 10 from their own 16, and would later face a 4th and 16 at the Duke 47 which Hartman would convert on the ground, diving just beyond the sticks to keep Notre Dame alive. An incomplete pass later and RB Audric Estime would knife through the Duke defense for a 30-yard game winning touchdown. Notre Dame would extend the lead to 7 on the 2-point conversion, and secured the victory on a strip sack recovery with 18 seconds to play.

The result of this game was total heartbreak for Duke, who had so many chances to win or stay in the ballgame. The two gimme field goal misses in the first half would have created a 7-point margin at the end, meaning Notre Dame would only have been playing to tie, not to win. There was the decision by Coach Elko to punt at the Notre Dame 33, rather than go for the win right there on 4th and 6. There was the near sack on the final drive, and the 4th and 16 conversion where they lost contain of QB Hartman. Even the Estime touchdown run came at a time when it looked like Notre Dame would settle for a field goal try, where anything could have happened. Instead, it was a heartbreaking loss at a time when Duke could have made a push for an incredibly rare top 10 AP ranking. For Notre Dame, this game was all about survival, now that their CFP margin is paper thin. The Fighting Irish live to see another day, and this time, they were the ones delivering the heartbreak on the road with a last-minute score.

Quick Hitters:

• Georgia / Auburn

  • It would be easy to continue to give the two-time defending NCAA Champions the benefit of the doubt, and they do remain unbeaten through week 5, but maybe it’s time to acknowledge that this isn’t the same Georgia team we’ve seen over the past couple of seasons. On Saturday it was another scare against a mid-tier SEC team. Auburn jumped out to an early lead and continued to punch back as Georgia clawed their way back into the game. Trailing 17-10 late in the 3rd, Georgia would have 3 offensive possessions and had to score on all 3 to take a 27-20 lead into Auburn’s final drive. The Georgia defense came up clutch again securing the win, but it was not easy. It will only be a matter of time before someone catches Georgia in one of these off games and does enough to secure the upset. It could be as soon as next week.

• Kentucky / Florida

  • Speaking of next week, Georgia will have all they can handle from the surging 5-0 Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky had not been tested until week 5 after a cupcake non-conference schedule led directly into a week 4 stroll with Vanderbilt to open SEC play. After opening the season with a dud against Utah, Florida looked much more formidable in their stomping of Tennessee. On Saturday, Kentucky again made the Gators look pedestrian in a 33-14 romp. Maybe Florida peaked against Tennessee, or maybe this Kentucky team is about to shock the world next Saturday between the hedges.

• Ole Miss / LSU

  • Rounding out the SEC quick hitters we have Saturday’s barnstormer of the week. This game was chalk full of momentum swings and multi-touchdown runs, with Ole Miss racing out to a 21-7 lead early, before losing the 2nd and 3rd quarters 35-13. Ole Miss opened the 4th quarter with a score to close the gap to 42-40, and 2 possessions later LSU and Ole Miss would trade touchdowns to make the score 49-47. Ole Miss finally forced an LSU punt, and would then drive in the final 2 minutes 88-yards for a go-ahead touchdown to take a 55-49 lead. With only 39 seconds on the clock, LSU marched deep into Ole Miss territory, getting as close as the 16-yard line. Two false start penalties would set the Tigers back, and on the last play of the game Jayden Daniels would throw an incomplete pass in the endzone. In what amounted to an elimination game, Ole Miss came out ahead but by the slimmest of margins. Now that they are through the toughest part of their schedule, don’t be surprised if Ole Miss makes a run to 7-2 or 8-1 when they travel to Athens on November 11th for a showdown with Georgia.

• Louisville / NC State

  • In a Friday night slug fest, Louisville prevailed 13-10 over NC State. The Cardinals’ schedule has been light to date, but the road win over the Wolfpack is certainly valuable to their resume, and served as their first win over a reasonably strong team. Up next for Louisville, Notre Dame at home in prime time on ABC. It’ll be Notre Dame’s 3rd game in a row against an unbeaten team. For Louisville, it’ll be the statement opportunity they are looking for as they hope to announce their presence as CFP contenders.

• Baylor / UCF

  • If Ole Miss vs LSU was the barnstormer of the week, Baylor’s comeback win over UCF would have been the most unexpected result considering the season these teams have had and the margin UCF led by in the 3rd quarter. Baylor came in 1-3 with expected losses to Utah and Texas in addition to the shocking loss to Texas State. UCF meanwhile had just taken their first loss at Kansas State and was looking to bounce back in their first ever Power 5 Big 12 home game. For the first 36:46, UCF did nothing but dominate the game. The lead was 35-7, and the win probability was at 99.8%. That number would creep up to 99.9% entering the 4th quarter with the Knights up 35-10, but a quick Baylor touchdown, an interception, another quick Baylor touchdown, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown later, UCF got the ball clinging to a 35-33 lead. Three plays later, and UCF was punting the ball back to the Bears. Baylor would march down the field and kick a go-ahead field goal with 1:14 on the clock, and despite some heroics, including a conversion of the year candidate on a Timmy McClain 40-yard pass that netted 16 yards on 4th and 6, UCF would miss a 59-yard field goal at the horn to fall to 0-2 in Big 12 play. The win was Baylor’s all time largest comeback, and may have saved Coach Aranda’s job in the process. For UCF, it’s just another “welcome to the Big 12” moment, and a painful reminder that anything can happen on any given Saturday.

• West Virginia / TCU

  • Speaking of coaches to may have saved their jobs, how about Neal Brown and the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are now an improbable 4-1 after picking up a road win over TCU. Going into the season with Penn State, Pitt, Texas Tech and the National Runner Up from 2022 in TCU on the schedule in the first 5 games, it was a question of when, not if Coach Brown would be fired. People questioned if 2-3 would be enough to save his job. Instead, WVU now sits 4-1 with their only loss to a very strong Penn State team in week 1. Coming up on the schedule, winnable games against Houston (2-3), Oklahoma State (2-2), UCF (3-2) and a test against BYU (4-1). There is indeed a world where on November 11th, Oklahoma is hosting 8-1 West Virginia for a potential spot in the Big 12 title game. The sky is officially now the limit in West Virginia.

• Oregon State / Utah

  • Last week Oregon State fell to Washington State in the Pac-2 Title Game, but the Beavers rebounded handing the Cam Rising-less Utah Utes their first loss of the season. This both keeps the dream of an Oregon State/Washington State rematch for the full conference title alive, and creates an interesting data point for the committee to consider. If Utah comes back with star QB Rising and strings off a run of wins, how much consideration will the committee give to that injury impacting this result? It’s not a question we will worry about, but it’ll definitely be something on their mind. Utah had survived deep into the season, but the clock finally struck midnight, and it was the Beavers who came out on top.

• Surviving the Onside Kick (USC / Colorado & Washington / Arizona)

  • Elsewhere in the Pac-12, USC and Washington cruised to comfortable road wins, or at least they should have. Both teams pulled out to big leads, and then played it safe giving the opposition an opportunity late to pull off the upset. Fortunately for both the onside kicks by Colorado and Arizona were secured leading to victory, but if those defensive efforts show up against a better team, watch out! One of these two teams will miss their shot at the CFP because of a defensive performance like what we saw on Saturday. Maybe sooner rather than later. For now though, both march on unbeaten for another week.

Let’s take a look at the Week 5 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• We have a definite #1! Texas has moved into the top spot in the composite team strength ratings, meaning that they are both the strongest team in the country and that they have the strongest raw resume. The AP voters have UT at #3. They are 2 spots low.

• Penn State now makes an easy case to be #2, rating as the second strongest team in the country and passing Ohio State on raw resume after the Buckeyes had a bye week. Penn State is the top ranked team without a first-place vote. They should almost be the #1 team overall. Should Texas lose to OU, we may make that case next week!

• Ohio State and Florida State sit at #3 and #4 after taking the week off, but look at Alabama racing back into the top 5! Alabama’s win over Ole Miss continues to look better and better. Another big test against Texas A&M awaits.

• Where are the Georgia Bulldogs? All the way back at #14! The cupcake non-con schedule plus uninspiring results against middling SEC competition has not helped the AP #1 team, and Kentucky is coming fast. Resume building opportunity this weekend for sure.

Top 25 as voted on by the strength rating systems:

• There are 8 teams receiving a first place vote this week, but none more than the Texas Longhorns, who do not yet have a majority, but who have separated at the top over the Big Ten trio of Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan.

• Sitting at #5 is the Texas opponent this week, Oklahoma! The Sooners now have 4 first place votes of their own, and have surpassed the remaining Pac-12 and SEC contenders.

• It will not last past this season, but look at Alabama and Georgia representing the top of the SEC at only 8th and 9th (!!). There is still depth at the top of the league, but the rating models are NOT a fan thus far.

Unexpected results from Week 5 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Bowling Green over Georgia Tech

  • One of the most surprising results of any week is when a MAC team drops some Maction on a Power 5 squad, even if it’s Georgia Tech.

• West Virginia over TCU

  • Neal Brown doing a great job of saving his job, this time with a road win over the 2022 National Runner Up.

• Baylor over UCF

  • The largest comeback in Baylor history left a sour taste in the mouth of UCF fans in their first ever Big 12 home game. This was a rematch of the 2014 Fiesta Bowl, with the Bears getting their revenge.

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

• Biggest Riser is Bowling Green after their surprise win over Georgia Tech. Pitt takes the biggest tumble taking a big loss to Virginia Tech.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 6 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

• Our top game of the week is the 5th best game of the entire season upon evaluation, with Texas and Oklahoma meeting in Dallas for the latest edition of the Red River (insert rivalry name). Behind the round robin of Penn State/Ohio State/Michigan, and next week’s Oregon/Washington matchup, this top game will either solidify Texas as a national #1, or it will mark the rise of Oklahoma as they race up the strength ratings this year. This could be a two-part affair with game 2 in the Big 12 Title Game.

• Alabama and Texas A&M will likely decide the fate of the SEC West. An Alabama win would put them in the driver seat with only LSU having a chance to spoil the party. The path to the CFP requires a win here. Texas A&M meanwhile will be without their starting QB for the season, but has shown to be capable of upsetting Alabama with suspect QB play before. Watch out for this one.

• Missouri will have a second chance to establish themselves as a contender in the suddenly wide-open SEC East. LSU will be looking to avenge last week’s shootout loss with Ole Miss.

• Notre Dame gets a 3rd game in a row against an unbeaten team, this time traveling to Louisville for a bout with the Cardinals. How many last second games can the Fighting Irish sustain before winning or losing with time to spare?

• Georgia is a big favorite over Kentucky, but keep an eye on that one if Georgia continues to struggle to put SEC teams away.

• Our top Group of 5 game this week is Fresno State traveling to play at Wyoming in a game that could decide the Mountain West as well as a G5 New Year 6 bowl berth. This is a big G5 game!

That’s all we have for the Week 5. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)