2023 Week 2 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2023 Week 2 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

Week 2 was a loaded slate with big non-conference games of significance across the country. No single game seemed to carry playoff implications more than Texas travelling to Alabama. In a rematch of one of the top games of the season last year, Texas again pulled ahead through the first half, and this time was able to keep Alabama at arm’s length pulling out a huge 34-24 win in Tuscaloosa. It was a statement win for the Texas Longhorns, who have announced their presence as a CFP contender much in the way that Florida State did in their resounding week 1 romp over LSU. The Longhorns project to run the table in the Big 12, which means it will likely take 2 unexpected results to keep them from the CFP. There is a lot of animosity in the Big 12 against Texas, so it won’t be easy, but the Longhorns are in a great position early in the season with the road win at Alabama on the resume. For Alabama, the margin suddenly becomes very thin, but in the SEC, where a 2-loss conference champion figures to be the top 2-loss option in the country, the UT loss being in the non-conference still offers some wiggle room, though we have not yet seen a 2-loss team make the 4 team CFP.

Quick Hitters

• Ole Miss/Tulane

  • Our top-rated game of the weekend, even after adjusting our win probabilities. The score does not tell the story of this game. Ole Miss was behind and had to work to come back on the road to pick up a win against Tulane, playing without star QB Michael Pratt. These are both really good teams.

• Miami/Texas A&M

  • Another year of being ranked in the preseason and another year with a frustrating early season loss for Texas A&M. Miami was the better team throughout and avenged last season’s loss in College Station.

• Kansas/Illinois

  • Jalon Daniels made his first start of the season and looked every bit like the preseason Big 12 player of the year he is expected to be. Kansas dazzled on offense and held on against a spirited Illinois comeback to secure the win.

• North Carolina/App State

  • Last year’s 63-61 game was one of the most thrilling early season matchups. This year they combined for 50 less points, but still produced a thriller in double overtime with an all-time freeze the kicker moment at the end of regulation. Appalachian State stopped the Tar Heels on the 2-point conversion, but could not produce a score of their own to have a shot at the win.

• Oregon/Texas Tech

  • One of the most exciting games of the weekend was back and forth to the end. A late pick-six set up the final score, but Texas Tech still had a throw into the endzone at the buzzer with a chance to tie. The preseason Big 12 dark horse Red Raiders start the season 0-2 after last week’s surprising loss at Wyoming. Oregon avoids the big upset and continues to match the feverish pace in the Pac-12.

• Utah/Baylor

  • Similar to the matchup in Lubbock, a top-rated Pac-12 team avoids the road loss to a Big 12 team that faceplanted in week 1 and now sits at 0-2. Utah survives a second game without QB Cam Rising in a come from behind win in Waco. Baylor at 0-2 faces the very real possibility of facing fellow disappointment Texas Tech with a 1-4 record.

• Washington State/Wisconsin

  • For the second year in a row Washington State takes down a ranked Wisconsin squad, this time in Pullman, WA. Coach Rolovich made a plea after the game that Washington State belongs in the Power 5, and with results like this to back it up we couldn’t agree more.

• Colorado/Nebraska

  • Coach Prime remains the story of college football, and his Colorado Buffalos looked strong against a good defense in Nebraska. Matt Rhule has work to do with the QB room, but the defense will give Big Ten teams headaches this season. Colorado marches on with both College Gameday and Big Noon Kickoff coming to town for the cross-town rivalry game with Colorado State.

• Iowa/Iowa State

  • El Assico wasn’t necessarily a thriller, but Iowa State had a chance late in the game to tie even though they couldn’t convert. Much of the game was ugly to watch though, which was fitting for the audience of presidential candidates slogging through yet another ugly campaign season.

• Notre Dame/NC State

  • A pregame lightning strike knocked out the brand-new NC State multi-million-dollar video board. Once the game was underway, it was Sam Hartman knocking out the rest of the NC State team with 4 touchdown passes pulling the Fighting Irish out of striking distance for a comfortable road win.

• UCF/Boise State

  • Last week Boise State couldn’t hang with Washington on the road. This week it was potential Big 12 contender UCF coming to town and leaving with a close win. It was only 10-9 late when UCF and Boise State traded late touchdown drives pushing the game to 16-15 with Boise ahead. A 40-yard field goal at the horn and UCF took the win.

• James Madison/Virginia

  • In year 2 of their transition to FBS, James Madison is off to yet another great start to the season, this time getting to 2-0 with a come from behind win at Virginia. The final score to put the Dukes ahead came with under 1 minute to play, and the defense prevented UVA from having any chance at a winning kick.

• UTSA/Texas State

  • Texas State could not back up their surprising win over Baylor with a repeat performance against UTSA, who rebounded from their week 1 loss to Houston nicely. The game was tied at the half, but a 3rd quarter touchdown gave the Roadrunners a lead they would not relinquish, hanging on for a 20-13 win.

• Rice/Houston

  • Rice started out with a barnstorming 28-0 lead, only to give up 28 straight points to the Houston Cougars. Rice remains the only Southwest Conference team not to find a home in the Power 5, but the win over Houston gives them a transitive property win over both Houston and Baylor (Houston > UTSA > Texas State > Baylor). If either the Cougars or Bears can upset Texas, TCU and Texas Tech maybe Rice could be the transitive property Southwest Champs in 2023.

• Cincinnati/Pitt

  • Also transitioning into the Big 12 this year, Cincinnati starts the post Luke Fickle era with a quality road win over Pitt to move to 2-0. There is a lot of question about how strong the 2021 CFP participant would be with the coaching and roster turnover, but Cincinnati looks strong enough to certainly be dangerous in a reshaped Big 12. Two late Pitt touchdowns made the score seem closer than it was.

• Arizona/Mississippi State

  • It was an under the radar game given Arizona’s ineptitude in past seasons, but the Wildcats fought back from an early 14-0 hole and forced overtime against Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs were able to win it in overtime with a very close 4th down stop. The Pac-12 is super deep, so Arizona may not win a ton of games, but this team is much improved and will upset someone later in the season in a surprising way.

• Pac-12

  • The Pac-12 was always going to take a loss by default with USC and Stanford playing, but the conference looked strong again with several key road wins for top contenders. The losers all played well too with Arizona falling in OT, Cal nearly beating Auburn, and Arizona State hanging with Oklahoma State for much of the game.

Let’s take a look at the Week 2 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• We welcome the Texas Longhorns to the #1 spot in our overall rankings. Texas rates as the 7th strongest team with the #1 raw resume by a large margin with the road win over Alabama.

• Florida State slides down to #2 this week, but maintains a healthy lead over the rest of the field from their week 1 win over LSU.

• Utah is the only one of two teams with two Power 5 wins on the season, including one on the road. While Colorado has a deficit to make up on team strength ratings, Utah has the benefit of preseason strength, and the raw resume is slightly better than that of the Buffalos.

• Notre Dame closes out our top 4 with rating as the 9th strongest team with the 10th strongest raw resume.

• Following the loss to Texas, Alabama drops to #26, just behind Auburn and UCF, both of which did not receive a single vote in the AP Poll.

• Ole Miss is not receiving the benefit of beating Tulane on the road in the AP Poll and should rank much higher than they do in the AP.

Top 25 as voted on by the strength rating systems:

• Ohio State rates as the second strongest team across all rating systems, but has zero first place votes.

• Most surprising votes go to Oregon State and UCLA courtesy of the ESPN Efficiency ratings and the Welch rating system respectively.

• Remember with teams like Colorado or Alabama/Texas that it will take a few more weeks for rating systems to react to the results on the field.

Unexpected results from Week 2 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• FIU over North Texas

• Old Dominion over Louisiana

• Rice over Houston (major upset!!)

• Texas over Alabama

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

• Colorado is the biggest riser as rating systems catch up to their meteoric rise this season

• Alabama drops the most following the home loss to Texas

Now let’s highlight a few Week 3 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

• There are only 8 games this week where both teams have at least a 40% chance to win.

• Last week there were 18 games with a game rating of 40 or better. This week there are 12.

• For the 2nd time in 3 weeks LSU finds themselves playing in the top-rated game of the week.

• Best G5 game this week is James Madison coming off of a thrilling win over Virginia taking on Troy.

That’s all we have for the Week 2. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)