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Welcome to the 2023 Week 11 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!
We have been waiting all season for Michigan and Georgia to be tested so we could properly evaluate their strength, and all season we have bene left wanting more. Last week we got a taste for Georgia who overcame a challenge by the Missouri Tigers to pull away late, and this week we saw both take on top 10 teams. Michigan got their shot at Penn State, who had breezed through the season outside of a defensive struggle with Ohio State where the Nittany Lion’s offense seemed completely inept. Georgia meanwhile was up against Ole Miss, who had looked dominant on offense outside of a 10-point display against Alabama. For Michigan and Georgia, these games represented the measuring stick that would validate their previous committee rankings. For Michigan, the committee thus far had ranked according to their displayed team strength, despite having minimal raw resume value relative to the other CFP contending teams. For Georgia, the committee had elevated the Bulldogs beyond both their team strength and their raw resume, almost in faith that the dominant 2-time defending national champs were just lying in wait, ready to pounce. On Saturday, both validated their CFP positions with statement wins. Will that signify a jump into the top 4 as measured by our resume data below? We shall find out!
Quick Hitters:
Georgia / Ole Miss
This is the dominance we have been waiting to see against a good team. The game was tied in the 2nd quarter at 14, then Georgia out paced Ole Miss 38-3 the rest of the way. This will be a huge boost for both Georgia’s raw resume and their team strength rating. The Bulldogs were sitting at 8th in both ratings last week, so there’s still a long way to go to get to the top 4 overall, but this was a huge step forward!
Michigan / Penn State
Michigan and Ohio State have been trading places at the top of the team strength ratings for the past few weeks. That is going to change. Michigan was dominant on Saturday, especially on defense, and pounded their way to a 24-15 win. While Michigan is almost certainly solidifying their spot atop the computer ratings, don’t forget what happened when Ohio State played Penn State. Defensive dominance and late scores to pull away in a 20-12 win. Not all that dissimilar to what Michigan did Saturday.
Florida State / Miami
Rivalry games are hard to win, even if the opponent isn’t playing their best. Florida State led in the second half and did just enough to keep Miami at arm’s length to stay unbeaten and win, but this isn’t going to do them any favors in the team strength ratings. Don’t be surprised if the committee seriously considers dropping FSU behind Washington this week out of the top 4. Playing in the weakened ACC also doesn’t help their odds of staying ahead of anyone on a level win/loss record with the Seminoles.
Washington / Utah
Washington had to fight for this one, trailing at the half and needing a shutout in the 2nd half to walk away with a 1-score win. This game could have gotten out of hand for the Utes if not for a Washington pick-6 turned turnover as the defender dropped the ball prior to entering the endzone. It’s still a great win for Washington, who will now likely own the strongest raw resume in the country. This should be a top 4 team in the next committee rankings.
Oregon / USC
Oregon continues to keep pace with the rest of the 1-loss teams, doing enough to maintain their edge in the strength ratings. At this point it seems like the path to the CFP is clear. Win out and hope Michigan/Ohio State is not close.
Texas / TCU
The Texas Longhorns were running TCU off the field before giving up a late comeback and holding on for the win. Sound familiar? That’s what happened last week, when Kansas State pushed UT into overtime and had a play for the win. If Texas drops any further in the strength ratings, expect Alabama to get consideration for moving ahead. The Crimson Tide’s overall resume is starting to create a gap on Texas, and an Alabama SEC Title is the Longhorn’s ticket to the CFP.
Louisville / Virginia
A close call against a bad ACC team isn’t what the Cardinals needed if they wanted to make a case for CFP contention. Louisville is at the back of the line amongst the 1-loss teams, and right now figures to be behind the loser of Michigan/Ohio State as well as the Pac-12 champ and SEC champ. Louisville needs to beat an unbeaten Florida State to win the ACC and get some help in the Big 12 to get close. That may still not be enough.
Missouri / Tennessee
Working in Georgia’s favor is that they already beat Missouri, and that win looks even better after the Tigers thrashed Tennessee this weekend. Working against Georgia? Tennessee is dropping like a rock, and will earn the Bulldogs less cred if they pick up the win this weekend. Don’t be surprised to see Missouri at the front of the 2-loss line in the next committee rankings, and maybe ahead of 1-loss Louisville.
UCF / Oklahoma State & Texas Tech / Kansas
Saturday was a big disappointment for the contending Big 12 teams in the mid-teens of the latest CFP rankings. Texas Tech won on a walk off field goal to drop Kansas to 7-3, and Oklahoma State got planted deep in the Florida soil, getting buried by UCF. Both teams may remain ranked, but it’ll be the low 20’s at best. Oklahoma State still has a path to the Big 12 title game, but it isn’t straight forward anymore.
Arizona / Colorado
The Arizona Wildcats continue to march on, hoping for chaos to make the Pac-12 title game. This time it was a walk off road win over the plummeting Colorado Buffalos. Not too long-ago Coach Prime’s Buffs were the talk of college football and ranked 15th in the AP Poll. Now they are 4-6 and unlikely to make a bowl game.
Tulane / Tulsa
Does Tulane want to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Year 6? If so, they need to get their act together. Is this the best G5 team out there? 20 points over South Alabama, loss to Ole Miss, 18 points over Southern Miss, FCS win, 12 points over UAB, 10 points over Memphis, 7 points over North Texas, 2 points over Rice, 3 points over East Carolina, 2 points over Tulsa. Tulane continues to win, but they are not closing the door on another G5 team sliding on by into the NY6.
North Carolina / Duke
North Carolina has had a lot of close calls this season, some in wins and in both of their losses. Saturday was another close call, this time against cross town rival Duke in a double OT thriller. Duke closed the gap in the 4th, converting an onside kick to help take a late lead. North Carolina tied it up going into OT and pulled out the win in double OT. Look for this win to push the Tar Heels up into the top 20 of the week 11 committee rankings.
Mountain West New Year 6 Hopes
The Mountain West has collectively played so well this season, but it is all for naught with respect to the New Year 6, as both 1-loss contenders took bad losses this weekend. Air Force fell behind and could not stop turning it over in their comeback bid against Hawaii, and Fresno State got blown out by their rivals San Jose State. UNLV is well positioned to play for the Mountain West now as a 2-loss team, and one of those losses is to Michigan, but they still need a ton of help just to be considered at this point.
Let’s take a look at the Week 11 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):
Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:
Ohio State has lost the origin. The best possible resume belongs to a team that is both the best according to the team strength ratings as well as having accrued the most raw resume value. If that team exists you will find them in the overall resume plot at the relative origin of our ratings (1,1). That’s where Ohio State sat last week, but Michigan’s dominant win over Penn State created a gap in team strength, and Washington’s home win over Utah moved the Huskies ahead on raw resume. Ohio State still seems to have the best overall resume, but they are not the best in any single component of the resume. Let’s take a look at the resumes for Ohio State, Michigan, Washington, and let’s throw in unbeaten Florida State and Georgia for good measure. (Resumes pulled with 55/80 rating systems reporting)
You can see clearly the gap between the strength rating dispersion of Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia vs what it looks like for Florida State and Washington. There is definitely a disparity in favor of the committee’s 1, 2 and 3.
If we bucketize by raw resume win quality here is the breakdown:
Washington – 3 great wins, 1 good win, 6 more wins
Ohio State – 2 great wins, 2 good wins, 6 more wins
Florida State – 1 great win, 3 good wins, 6 more wins
Michigan – 1 great win, 9 more wins
Georgia – 2 great wins, 1 good win, 7 more wins
The case for Michigan is that they have the single best win by our calculated win value (some would disagree and put Washington’s win over Oregon ahead) and that Michigan has dominated all season (which agrees with the computers seeing them as the strongest team).
The case for Georgia is the big wins late showing their true strength. This is reflected in the surge we see in the team strength ratings for the Bulldogs, though the case it pretty thin in a full season evaluation when selecting the #1 team.
The case for Washington is they just keep collecting quality wins, including a win over the highest committee ranked team with a loss. Washington’s poor performances against Arizona State and Stanford will still hold them back.
The case for Florida State doesn’t make much sense considering they are no longer playing like a top 4 team on team strength and no longer possess a top 4 raw resume.
For Ohio State, the case remains what it has been over the past several weeks. They have the best overall resume and deserve the top spot in the rankings.
Reasonable Committee Rankings assuming some variance between pure team strength and a balanced resume perspective:
Some notes here:
There are 6 teams with a data case for the top 4, and none are Florida State. If there is a change this week in the rankings FSU is likely the team on the move, dropping down after a close win over Miami.
The 1-loss teams with a case for the top 4 are Oregon and Alabama. Oregon rates as the stronger team, and that is the sole reason the committee likely keeps them ahead this week of the rest of the 1-loss pack. Texas has a much better overall resume, but they are close enough to Alabama that the head-to-head result remains important.
The AP Poll elevated Louisville to the #9 spot, but the best the data can support is sitting back at #13. They are a candidate to be jumped by a 2-loss team.
Oklahoma is about to be underrated, as the data makes a clear case for a top 10 ranking. At this point the losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State are nullified for head-to-head application.
The gap between James Madison and Liberty is large, and we have Liberty now ahead of Tulane, so the committee continuing to slide Tulane forward will not be supported by the data.
Oregon State continues to be overvalued, and Kansas State undervalued according to the boundaries we have here. The ceiling for Oregon State should be #16, and that’s the floor we have for KSU.
Here is our projection for the next committee rankings (Note: this is what we think they will do based on historical behavior and rankings/results last week, NOT what we think they should do):
Ohio State (Last week #1)
Georgia (2)
Michigan (3)
Washington (5)
Florida State (4)
Oregon (6)
Texas (7)
Alabama (8)
Missouri (14)
Louisville (11)
Penn State (10)
Oregon State (12)
Ole Miss (8)
Oklahoma (17)
LSU (19)
Notre Dame (20)
Arizona (21)
Iowa (22)
Tennessee (13)
North Carolina (24)
Utah (18)
Tulane (23)
Oklahoma State (15)
Kansas State (25)
Kansas (16)
Unexpected results from Week 11 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating
Oklahoma State: Ouch! Second MAJOR upset for the Cowboys this season
Air Force makes the list with a bad upset loss for a second week in a row
Fellow Mountain West contender Fresno State also prominent on the list
Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating
Now let’s highlight a few Week 12 games worth watching (Top 50 games)
Notes:
The game of the week takes us again to the Pac-12 with Oregon State hosting Washington looking for a chance to disrupt the Huskies’ perfect season. At this point Washington can ill afford a loss, as they would surely fall behind and remain behind Texas and Alabama in the pecking order, even if they beat Oregon for a second time in the Pac-12 title game.
The 2nd best game of the weekend has less at stake, but does keep us in the Pac-12 as Arizona hosts Utah. These two teams could be frontrunners in the Big 12 next season. This season’s game should be a blast!
Clemson and North Carolina play for the title of “ACC team who blew an opportunity the most” this year. Clemson has been playing great the past few weeks, and North Carolina is only a few plays away from still being unbeaten.
Georgia gets the 3rd of their 3 end of season tests, but this time against a reeling Tennessee team. The Volunteers put forth a mighty effort against Alabama only to fall apart in the second half. They were blown out against Missouri, the second-best team they played this season. How will they fare against Georgia?
Kansas State and Kansas play with Kansas now eliminated from Big 12 title contention. Kansas State remains alive, but two rivalry games remain against two teams very capable of bringing an upset to bare.
Louisville marches on as a 1-loss Power 5 team. Can they gain any traction by blowing out a Miami team that just pushed Florida State to the final possession?
Air Force and UNLV sit atop the Mountain West standings, but both are now outsiders in the Group of 5 playoff race. The winner of this game will play for the Mountain West, so there is still hope. Both teams would need help though.
The last game to note is Texas in a night game at Iowa State. The Cyclones just demolished BYU on the road, and Jack Trice will be bumping. Texas has allowed their past 2 opponents to stay way closer late in the game than they should have been. Don’t be surprised if Iowa State is in this game late.
That’s all we have for the Week 11. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!
(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)
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