2023 Week 10 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2023 Week 10 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

Following week 9 action, we got our first glimpse of the mindset of the 2023 CFP Committee. The committee saw Ohio State as the top overall team, ahead of Georgia who had sat in the #1 spot in the AP Poll all season. The committee overlooked the weak resume for both Georgia and Michigan, who were in the 2 and 3 spots, and Florida State held onto #4, lamented for their poor performance against Boston College early in the season. The committee loved the Oregon Ducks, elevating them to #6. Washington at #5 remained unbeaten, but the committee recognized poor performances against weak teams over recent weeks, leaving them as the last ranked unbeaten P5 squad. Texas and Alabama were in favorable positions, but were stuck behind Oregon, and the rest of the 1-loss P5 teams followed before LSU showed up with 2-losses on the season.

It seemed like the committee valued the raw resume, but not a ton. It held Michigan back in the rankings, but was not a barrier for Georgia or Oregon. Pure team strength seemed to elevate Georgia, but could not align with the data we have for Texas. Bad performances were a problem for Florida State and Washington, but not for Oregon (Texas Tech) or Georgia (South Carolina, Auburn). Still, you could have easily predicted the committee ranking clusters if you took the win/loss records for all teams and sorted on the Loss column. The rankings pretty much were 1-5) P5 Unbeatens, 6-13) P5 1-loss, 14-23) P5 2-losses, 24/25) Top G5 teams. We’ll see if there is any more variation in the rankings this week, or if that trend holds.

Quick Hitters:

• Ohio State/Rutgers

  • At the half, Rutgers led 9-0. Ohio State won the second half 28-7 and secured a comfortable 35-16 win. Sound familiar? Michigan led only 14-7 at the half before pulling away to beat Rutgers 31-7. If the committee challenges Ohio State’s position atop the rankings because of a poor first half in a comfortable win, they should do the same for Michigan (Rutgers), Georgia (South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri), and Florida State (Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Pitt).

• Georgia/Missouri

  • Georgia secured their first big win of the season that may hold serious resume value after Kentucky drifted off. The win over Missouri should not be enough to elevate Georgia to the #1 spot, but the committee has already elevated the Bulldogs to the #2 spot. No telling if they’ll continue that trend.

• Florida State/Pitt

  • At the half Florida State was in a tight game yet again, but a pair of 3rd quarter scores and a stout defensive effort secured the easy win. What can FSU do to change the committee perception other than continue to dominate? The data suggests this is a much better team than the committee thinks.

• Washington/USC

  • A barnstormer was expected and a barnstormer was delivered. Washington found their offensive rhythm again when they needed it most to stay unbeaten and nearly secure their spot in the Pac-12 title game. The lack of defensive dominance in their two biggest wins will hurt the Huskies chances of elevating relative to the other P5 unbeatens in the CFP rankings.

• Texas/Kansas State

  • Kansas State is really good. According to the strength ratings while writing this they are still the 12th strongest team in the country. This win should be seen by the committee as super impressive given that UT is playing with a backup QB and held on with a defensive stand to secure the win. Our fear is the committee will not see it that way, and that this result will be held against Texas when it should absolutely be a positive to their resume.

• Alabama/LSU

  • Alabama avenges their 2022 loss to set themselves up for a shot at Georgia and the SEC title. Alabama has a 1-game lead on Ole Miss and the Head-to-Head tiebreaker over both Ole Miss and now LSU. What would the committee do if evaluating 1-loss Big 12 Champ Texas, 1-loss SEC Champ Alabama, and 1-loss SEC Runner Up Georgia? It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we’ll see that happen.

• Oklahoma State/Oklahoma

  • In the final edition of Bedlam, Oklahoma State comes up with a big 4th down stop to win. The Cowboys lost 33-7 this year to South Alabama at home. Were it not for that result this would be a team firmly in playoff consideration. Currently, OSU sits alone in 2nd place in the Big 12 and would get a shot at Texas if they win out. Oklahoma State also has the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State and West Virginia. Unless Iowa State runs the table and Oklahoma State takes another loss, we’ll see this team in Arlington.

• Ole Miss/Texas A&M

  • How many close calls can Ole Miss survive? The Texas A&M Aggies were unable to win yet another road game after missing a potentially game tying field goal in the last seconds. Ole Miss is not likely to make the CFP with no viable path to a conference championship and a lack of dominance in many of the biggest wins. Still, the New Year 6 bowls are highly likely at this point barring several unexpected results.

• Clemson/Notre Dame

  • We’ve seen the Clemson team we expected pre-season at several points this year. We saw that team against Florida State in the OT Loss, and now we’ve seen it again in the 31-23 win over highly ranked Notre Dame. This result is damaging for the Ohio State and Louisville resumes, as each Notre Dame loss is likely to impact their team strength and then the win value for Ohio State/Louisville.

• Arizona/UCLA

  • Arizona is playing so well right now. The Wildcats have a legit shot to run the table and finish 7-2 in Pac-12 play. If Oregon takes another loss, the Pac-12 position opposite Washington could very well come down to tiebreakers that could fall Arizona’s way. This will be a dangerous team in the expanded Big 12 next year.

• Kansas/Iowa State

  • Iowa State’s run at a Big 12 title hit a speed bump against Kansas, who remains alive at 4-2 in conference play. The Jayhawks lost to both Texas and Oklahoma State, the two teams ahead in the Big 12 standings, so the Big 12 Championship Game is unlikely, but 10 wins is still very much in play. Iowa State still has life since they play both Kansas State and Texas, but running the table is a long shot at this point for the Cyclones.

• Tulane/East Carolina

  • Tulane’s largest G5 win this season remains the season opening 20-point win over South Alabama. This team is still in a great spot to push for a New Year 6 bowl, but they are not inspiring confidence in a weakened AAC with yet another squeaker against East Carolina. This team should not be ranked (yet).

• Army/Air Force

  • Air Force was in such a great spot to push for a G5 New Year 6 bowl berth, but the 23-3 romp by Army should put an end to that hope. Still, the Falcons are unbeaten in the Mountain West and have a shot to win the conference. NY6 is still technically alive, but there’s no margin anymore with other G5 unbeaten and 1-loss teams making a push.

• Iowa/Northwestern

  • Iowa is a “fair catch” punt return call away from being 8-1 despite how much we all make fun of their offense. This defense is still legit good, and showed it again at Wrigley Field against Northwestern. They could give the Big Ten East champ headaches in the conference title game.

Let’s take a look at the Week 10 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

The win over Missouri was big for Georgia, but they are still far behind the competition on both strength and raw resume. This is going to be another week where Georgia will undoubtedly be ranked well ahead of where they deserve to be by overall resume. The raw resume has good value, but there are no “Great” wins. What really hurts is that the computers aren’t enamored with the two-time defending champs. They don’t care. The strength rating dispersion shows that hardly any see Georgia tightly grouped with the best teams in the country. It’s just not the resume the committee would make you think it is.

Ohio State is at risk of dropping in the committee rankings after a shaky start against Rutgers, but the computers see it differently. With 59/80 rating systems reporting, Ohio State is a half point up on Michigan in the composite team strength ratings. Ohio State already has the best overall resume, but being ahead on team strength means there isn’t a good argument for anyone else at #1.

We have controversy at #2 and #3. Given these resumes, Texas would no doubt rank ahead of Alabama because of the head-to-head road win, but even more controversial is seeing these 2 teams at #2 and #3 by resume. How could Texas and Alabama sit ahead of Washington, Florida State, Georgia and Michigan? Raw Resume! Texas has 2 good wins, and 2 great wins. That matches what our top resume Ohio State has. The loss to Oklahoma hurts both the raw resume and impacts the team strength rating, but there is still a lot of value, including having the best win of the season. Alabama meanwhile has an NCAA leading 4 great wins (50+ game value) including the past 2 weeks with victories over Tennessee and LSU. The Crimson Tide raw resume will cool off from here to the end of the season, but for now it’s so far ahead of the competition that Alabama has the 2nd best overall resume by data in the country.

What do we have against Oregon? The Ducks are playing really well right now and as of week 10 rate as the 4th strongest team! That’s nothing to speak poorly about. There’s a reason the committee likes them so much. Still, there is a single great win, and a single good win on the resume, and there isn’t much else. Closing games against USC and Oregon State will give the raw resume a boost, as would a conference title win over Washington, but for now Oregon still trails on overall resume because of how far those ahead of the Ducks are.

Here's what the committee might do on Tuesday:

Our committee predictions are as follows:

1. Georgia – This would be the wrong choice for #1. The committee got it right last week. Then Georgia beat a top 12 team and Ohio State trailed Rutgers at the half. This is the litmus test for the committee on whether or not they are going to be a reactionary force for the rest of the season, or if it’s a true reevaluation of the full season each week. Ohio State remaining at #1 would be a good sign. I’m afraid it won’t happen.

2. Ohio State – Easy #1 Ohio State is at risk of slipping after a poor 1st half showing against Rutgers. They should stay #1 this week, though I don’t have faith in the committee to do that.

3. Michigan – More of the same for Michigan. Absolutely nothing changed from where they were last week. Penn State will be the first major test for the Wolverines.

4. Florida State – The slow 1st half against Pitt likely solidifies Florida State being a step down from the committee’s top 3. Will they remain ahead of Washington? They should comfortably.

5. Washington – Another valuable win, but more questions on defense will stifle the upward movement for Washington.

6. Oregon – No reason to drop Oregon unless the committee is finally coming around on Texas and Alabama after both picked up big wins.

7. Texas – Texas dropped in the team strength ratings this week, and giving up the comeback to Kansas State will have hurt perception for sure. Alabama is a nice buffer though, and UT should be high enough to ensure head-to-head remains in play.

8. Alabama – Texas serves as a ceiling, maybe for the rest of the year. There’s a world where the Big Ten champ, Florida State, and Washington are in the playoff, and Alabama upsets Georgia, only for Texas to finish 12-1 and nab the 4th playoff spot.

9. Penn State – It all boils down to Michigan this weekend for Penn State.

10. Ole Miss – The close win over Texas A&M may cost Ole Miss a spot in the committee rankings. It shouldn’t, but the committee is already undervaluing Ole Miss, so that is likely to continue.

Unexpected results from Week 10 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

Top 5 risers and fallers in Composite Team Strength Rating

Now let’s highlight a few Week 10 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

• Michigan vs Penn State is the class of the week 11 slate. Michigan has gone untested all season. Penn State failed their first major test with the loss to Ohio State. Either Michigan will have a comparative great win with Ohio State and an opportunity to claim the committee #1 spot, or Penn State will remain alive in the Big Ten title race as well as the race for the CFP. This is a MASSIVE game!

• Georgia also now gets their biggest test of the season thus far. After hosting a surging Missouri team, Georgia now gets 1-loss Ole Miss. It’s another opportunity to quickly build a CFP worthy resume late in the season, and Ole Miss will need to win big if they want an outside shot at the CFP. Georgia’s schedule was dormant for much of the season, but it is closing with a bang!

• Tennessee at Missouri is a great test between 2 teams, but the stakes in this one are minimalized because of Georgia’s stranglehold on the SEC East. Tennessee still gets Georgia next week, and in the event that Ole Miss picks up the win Tennessee would still have a shot at the SEC East. This is a must win though.

• Washington gets another test in Utah. Given the committee perception of Washington, the Huskies can ill afford a loss at this stage. The schedule will test Washington in every game, and Utah has played the spoiler plenty of times in past seasons. Look out for this one to potentially produce another season altering upset! (Or Washington will win big)

• Also on the docket: UNC/Duke at the start of basketball season, infinite points for Oregon/USC, the implosion of Oklahoma or a rebound win over West Virginia, and the race to 14 points between Iowa and Rutgers.

• The best Group of 5 game this week is Coastal Carolina hosting Texas State. With James Madison ineligible for a bowl and for the Sun Belt Championship Game, Coastal Carolina is in the driver seat for the East’s position in the title game. Texas State is bowl eligible for the first time, and are a game behind Troy trying to make a title run of their own. This could be a great G5 game!

That’s all we have for the Week 10. If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X. If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)