2023 Week 1 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2023 Week 1 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

We are back for another season of resume evaluation and have expanded in a big way. Gone are the days of 10, 20 or even 30 rating systems feeding our composite. This year we have taken the leap to more than 80 independent rating systems and are continuing to grow. Why the expansion? There are a million ways to slice and dice college football data in the name of evaluating team strength. In a vacuum no single method will give you a perfect picture of reality. Each model will have strengths and weaknesses. By consolidating a large number of models, we are able to boost the agreements between models while smoothing out one off outliers for any given team. In the future we will likely begin to weight models based on performance and give more accurate models more of a say in our composite, but for now we start with an equal vote for all.

Also, this year we are abandoning the “world without upsets” forecast in favor of additional depth on the world as it is today. Each week we’ll look at the overall resume rankings, a top 25 representation of team strength as “voted on” by our rating systems, where resume value was gained or lost, strength rating movers and the best games to watch the following week. We will have focused resume comparisons throughout the season as well to help you understand why teams are where we say they are and where the AP or Committee is in the wrong. We are excited for the journey ahead and are grateful you have chosen to hang out with us for the 2023 season!

With the season intro out of the way let’s take a look at some of the week 1 headlines.

Colorado

No team had a bigger 2023 debut than the Coach Prime Colorado Buffalos, who travelled to Fort Worth to faceoff with the 2022 National Runner Up. TCU lost a ton in the way of roster talent from their magical 2022 campaign, but the Horned Frogs remained primed to be dangerous in Sonny Dykes’s second season at the helm. In his first season as head coach, Dykes and his Horned Frogs were a team of destiny losing only to Kansas State in the Big 12 Title Game and Georgia in the National Title Game. On Saturday, it was a different first season coach taking all the headlines. Much was made about the roster turnover at Colorado following the hiring of Deon Sanders as Head Coach. With nearly 60 transfer additions, Colorado was washing the stench of a 1-11 2022 campaign clean and starting anew. With transfer QB Shedeur Sanders and Two-Way Star and potential Heisman Candidate Travis Hunter leading the helm Colorado shocked the world with a 45-42 win over #17 TCU. Sanders set a Colorado passing record with 510 yards to go with 4 touchdowns. Hunter contributed with over 100 receiving yards and a redzone interception on defense that helped deliver a shocking upset. If not for the results in Laramie and Waco this would have been the upset of the day! TCU came in as 21-point favorites and left with a big fat L delivered by Coach Prime.

Big 12 Faceplants

Speaking of big fat L’s and shocking upsets we turn our attention to fellow Big 12 brethren Texas Tech and Baylor. Texas Tech came into the season as a playoff dark horse and expected Big 12 title challenger. The Joey McGuire hype train had left the station, and with QB Tyler Shough healthy and completing a full game Texas Tech had yet to lose. For those who abandoned ship when Tech opened up a 17-0 1st quarter lead over Wyoming it seemed like the Red Raiders were as expected and off to the races and on track to meet lofty expectations. Then reality struck. 17-0 became 17-10 by the half, and 17-17 going into the 4th quarter. Then after the 3rd missed field goal found the upright it seemed like hope might be lost for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rallied to force overtime though at 20 apiece with Wyoming. In double overtime, the Red Raiders put 6 on the board, but failed to convert on the 2-point conversion. On 4th down in the bottom of double OT, Wyoming found the endzone, and on the 2-point try RB Sam Scott found the endzone sending the crowd in Laramie Wyoming into a frenzy. It was a shocking setback for a team with such preseason hype and a painful blemish for head coach McGuire, who had done nothing but elevate football in Lubbock since hiring in after several seasons on the staff at Baylor.

Speaking of Baylor, it is never a positive experience for the favored team when “Kansas beating Texas” is the relevant comparison. The Bears came into Saturday as 27.5-point favorites over the lowly Texas State Bobcats, opened the game with a defensive stop, drove the ball to the 1-yard line, and settled for only 3 points. Texas State transfer QB TJ Finley marched the Bobcats down the field for a go-ahead touchdown, and Baylor would never lead again, falling 42-31. Baylor’s surprising loss to Texas State was the largest loss relative to the pregame spread since Kansas beat Texas in Austin in 2021 as 31-point dawgs. Texas State, like Colorado, loaded up on transfers following a 4-8 campaign in 2022, and in coach Kinne’s debut they were victorious over a Baylor squad many believed could contend in the Big 12.

With Texas State and Colorado bringing in the most transfers in the country and both taking down the Revivalry teams (TCU/Baylor) you could say that we have found ourselves witnessing the college football equivalent of the Anti-Crusade. Only time will tell if portalling to win is the new normal or a one-off success story at the expense of high profile Big 12 teams.

Pac-12

If the Big 12 was busy faceplanting over the weekend, the Pac-12 did the opposite, becoming the only conference to start 13-0 since 1938. In a season where the Pac-12 is incredibly deep and has a legitimate shot to win the national title, the start could not have been better. In additional to Colorado’s headline grabbing win in Fort Worth, Washington dispatched a good Boise State team, UCLA pulled away from past year G5 darling Coastal Carolina, Cal picked off North Texas on the road, and all other Pac-12 teams held serve against inferior opponents (apparently not a given) to keep the conference unbeaten. Several big tests await in week 2, but for now the conference is off to a flying start! It’s a shame we know it will not last beyond 2023. Enjoy it while we can!

Potential Contenders Elevating

The other theme for the week was fringe contenders announcing themselves in dominant wins in some of the biggest games of the week. First came Utah, who won so easily against Florida without star quarterback Cam Rising that many questioned the job stability for Florida coach Billy Napier. Transfer QB Graham Mertz came out flat, and the game was never in doubt as Utah won 24-11 Thursday night.

On Saturday night, it was potential Heisman and #1 overall pick candidate Drake Maye who lit up the South Carolina defense as North Carolina pulled away for a statement 31-17 win over their cross-state rivals. Maye was not perfect tossing 2 interceptions in the game, but he showed why many believe he has a chance to be a legend, and as he goes, so does North Carolina. The Tar Heels look to be the real deal this year!

In the game of the week, #8 Florida State downright bodied #5 LSU in a dominant 45-24 win. The Seminoles set the tone in the second half pulling away from the Tigers for a comfortable win. This team looks like the National Champions of old and has the parts and pieces to make a run this year. Coach Mike Norvell has hit several home runs in the transfer portal including star receiver Keon Coleman, who popped off for 3 touchdowns Sunday night. Florida State has elevated in a big way, and when the dust settles do not be surprised with how high their resume sits for the next few weeks. It is completely deserved. Where does Florida State find themselves this week? We will find out soon!

Speaking of contenders elevating, how about we address a contender doing the opposite. What the heck happened to Clemson? In their game against Duke, Clemson managed to both throw away nearly enough points to win the game and be a muffed punt away from being shut out 28-0. Two fumbles inside of the 10, 2 missed field goals, and a late interception prevented the Tigers from having any shot in this game. Either Duke is the real deal and about to contend in the ACC, or Clemson is toast. What a surprise to end the weekend!

Let’s take a look at the Week 1 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• Welcome to the top Florida State! The Seminoles take the top spot as the 7th strongest team with the #1 overall resume. The win over LSU creates enough separation on the overall resume that FSU is comfortably #1. The delta between them and #2 is the same as #2 to #13.

• After temporarily sitting at #1 following their impressive win over Florida, Utah slides down into the #2 spot. Even though Baylor lost to Texas State there is still a lot of value for Utah if they can go into week 3 sitting at 2-0 with 2 Power 5 wins.

• The big Monday night surprise winner, Duke has earned their way up to #3 in the overall resume rankings. This spot is likely temporary considering their team strength rating, but it’s a fun week 1 variance in the rankings that certainly rewards one of the biggest week 1 winners.

• Ohio State slides ahead of Michigan, Penn State, Alabama, and Georgia into the #4 spot following a road win over Indiana that wasn’t too impressive, but also was not nothing.

• Other big week 1 winners ahead of their AP ranking include Fresno State, Minnesota, Houston and Louisville.

Top 25 as voted on by the strength rating systems:

• Many of the rating systems are slow to overreact early in the season and will take their time with teams like Clemson, TCU, Colorado, and Florida State. Don’t be surprised if those teams start shifting by a lot if they don’t course correct over the next few weeks back to where models expected them to be preseason.

Unexpected results from Week 1 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• Texas State over Baylor (major upset!!)

• Colorado over TCU (major upset!!)

• Wyoming over Texas Tech (major upset!!)

• Northern Illinois over Boston College

• Duke over Clemson

• Louisiana Monroe over Army

Rating Model Evaluation

• Congratulations to Brian Simmons, Edward Kambour, Kelley Ford, Jon Dokter and William Born on being our 5 most correlated strength rating systems of the week!

Now let’s highlight a few Week 2 games worth watching (Top 50 games)

• Our top game of the week comes courtesy of Ole Miss and Tulane

• Be wary of the spread with Alabama and Texas, the math gets a little fuzzy for some of the teams at the top of the strength rating systems

• Lookout for one of Texas Tech and Baylor to bounce back with an upset win of their own against Pac-12 contenders despite the large lines with both playing at home

That’s all we have for the Week 1. If you have any questions about either the CFP End of Year Rankings or CFP Year-to-Date Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter or Facebook. If you would like to officially reference our rankings the DMs are always open. Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)