2025 Week 1 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome back to the 2025 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

Week 1 is in the books, and college football wasted no time reminding us why we love this sport: upsets, defensive slugfests, and some head-scratching performances that have our 80+ normalized team strength rating systems—like SP+, FEI, FPI, Sagarin, and our proprietary composite metrics—working overtime. Unlike the AP Poll, we wipe the slate clean each week, reevaluating every team’s resume from scratch. With the expanded 12-team playoff, we’re casting a wide net, tracking the full at-large pool like a college football “Bubble Watch.” It’ll be a wild ride, and you’ll find many deviances from the traditional polls in part because of the fair and balanced evaluation of team strength (how good do you look) and raw resume (what have you done).  Let’s unpack the wild start to the 2025 season with our data-driven lens and highlight the games that shook up our Week 1 rankings!

Quick Hitters: Week 1’s Biggest Moments

• Ohio State Stuns No. 1 Texas

  • The weekend’s marquee matchup saw No. 3 Ohio State grind out a 14-7 win over top-ranked Texas in Columbus. The Buckeyes’ defense was relentless, forcing four turnovers on downs and picking off Arch Manning in his first start. Our composite metrics vault Ohio State to No. 1 in our Week 1 resume rankings, with the Buckeyes receiving 15 of the 24 first place votes. Texas, despite the loss, holds a top-10 spot thanks to their preseason strength expectations and demonstrated in game strength, but those fourth-down failures have prevented the Longhorns from legitimizing their preseason AP rankings.

• Florida State Shocks Alabama

  • Talk about a turnaround! After a dismal 2-10 campaign in 2024, unranked Florida State stunned No. 8 Alabama 31-17 in Tallahassee. Transfer QB Tommy Castellanos ran for 78 yards and threw for 152, while the Seminoles’ 230 rushing yards overwhelmed Alabama’s defense—posting the Tide’s worst rushing output since 1975. The result sends Florida State soaring into the Top 10, and while the rating systems may need a few weeks to catch up from preseason expectations, Florida State may be here to stay. Is FSU back? Week 1 suggests they are and in a big way!

• Miami Edges Notre Dame in a Thriller

  • No. 10 Miami outlasted No. 6 Notre Dame 27-24 in a Sunday night classic, with Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck (205 yards, 2 TDs) and a game-sealing interception by DL Reuben Bain Jr. stealing the show. Miami now holds the 2^nd strongest win in the country per our raw resume data and is neck and neck with LSU for the #2 spot.

Other Standouts

• Penn State Rolls: AP No. 2 Penn State dismantled Nevada 46-11, with three turnovers and three sacks fueling high efficiency ratings across our metrics.  Still, the Nittany Lions remain 4^th in our composite strength ratings and a distant 13^th in the resume rankings, a large disconnect with their positioning in the AP Poll.  There were 5 other teams this week that received more 1^st place votes from the computers than did Penn State.  With another cupcake on the schedule this week, expect the disparity to only increase from here.

• South Florida’s G5 Splash: USF crushed No. 25 Boise State 34-7, and in the process vaulted past the Broncos, a 2024 CFP team, into potentially the pole position for the 2025 G6 playoff bid.  Tulane may have something to say in the CFP selection process, but the result from the weekend speaks for itself.  The Bulls looked legitimate as contenders!

• FCS Shocks: Tarleton State (30-27 over Army) and Austin Peay (34-14 over Middle Tennessee) delivered our only FCS over FBS upsets of the week.  The Tarleton State win is especially surprising and will set the scale in week 1 of our overall resume rankings graphic.

Let’s take a look at the Week 1 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• What have you done vs what do I expect?  This is our key early season theme that creates a disconnect between the AP Poll and a fair resume ranking.  Example, what is more impressive from the past weekend?  Is it Penn State dismantling Nevada, our 118^th strongest team, or is it TCU taking apart the 74^th strongest team?  Both games were beatdowns.  Voters expect Penn State to be great, so they are highly ranked.  Voters did not expect the same standard from TCU, and therefore TCU remains unranked in this week’s AP Poll.  South Carolina picked up a quality win over Virginia Tech, our 47^th strongest team, on Sunday afternoon.  Auburn won in Waco over our 41^st strongest team, Baylor, by a similar margin.  The result was similarly impressive, yet preseason expectations dictate that South Carolina sits in the Top 10 and Auburn remains unranked in the AP Poll.  These disconnects may or may not resolve themselves as the season progresses, but it is important to call them out as data refreshes with each new week of play.

• If the playoffs happened after only 1 week, we would contend for 5 SEC teams to make the field, 3 Big 12 teams, 2 ACC teams, a G6 representative, and only 1 Big Ten team.  This is likely to change over the course of the season, but keep in mind that Auto Qualifier narratives around what conferences deserve will be inconsistent with the actual resume data, both now and later into the season.

Top 10 Unexpected Results of the Season after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

Now let’s highlight a few Week 2 games worth watching

Week 2 Game of the Week:

• No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma: This clash could be a playoff eliminator early in the season. Michigan’s balanced attack faces Oklahoma’s rebuilt offense, with our models projecting a tight spread (Oklahoma -0.5). A win here could propel either team into the top 10 resume rankings and CFP contention.

That’s all we have for the Week 1.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)