2024 Week 14 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 14 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

We have made it through another regular season of college football!  At this point, only Army/Navy, conference championship weekend, bowl games and the CFP remain, and after another packed weekend of action we now have clarity on the playoff picture.  In the 4-team era, we’d be discussing the possibility of a 2-loss Conference Champion making the CFP for the first time.  There would be only two remaining paths for all 4 playoff contenders to have 1 or fewer losses.  Either Boise State would need to get in, or we’d need Penn State to beat Oregon and Texas/SMU to win their conferences, leaving us with 4 1-loss teams to compete for a title.  In the 12-team era, those conversations are moot.  While the playoff teams have not been decided, the playoff structure is mostly set, with many teams virtually a lock for the CFP with no games left to play. 

What we do know is that the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, and Mountain West champions are going to almost certainly all make the CFP.  In the 7 open bids, spots will be reserved for 11-1 Notre Dame, the Big Ten and SEC championship game losers, 10-2 Ohio State, and 10-2 Tennessee.  That leaves two bids, one of which almost certainly goes to 11-1 Indiana.  That leaves a single open bid up for debate, and about 5-6 teams with a legitimate case to earn that bid.  First up is 9-3 Alabama, rating as the 7th strongest team with the 8th best raw resume.  The biggest plus for Alabama is the win over South Carolina, who is surging late in the season with a legitimate argument that they could beat any team in the playoff field given their current form.  Ole Miss likewise rates highly in the computer ratings, but has 3-losses and is likely on the outside looking in.  In the ACC, Miami took a tumble against Syracuse, likely dropping the Hurricanes outside of the cut line.  The committee has shown a tendency to overrate Miami thanks to the explosive offense, so that dynamic is still available to get the Canes into the CFP.  11-2 SMU would be an interesting At Large case with a loss to Clemson, who just lost to South Carolina.  In the Big 12, BYU and Iowa State both have an interesting At Large case if Arizona State were to win the conference, but both are just a bit too far behind on team strength for the committee to give them serious consideration.  The raw resumes for both are worthy of consideration though at this point in the season.  It’s all a mess, and there is a good chance the committee will select one or more teams without a playoff worthy resume for inclusion into the tournament for the first time since we’ve been tracking resumes.  What do the resumes look like?

Here are the full list of possible CFP resumes for committee consideration:

Notes on possible CFP Resumes:

• The following 6 teams are CFP locks with supporting resumes at this point and will be playing for a national title.  13-0 or 12-1 Oregon, 12-1 or 11-2 Texas, 11-2 or 10-3 Georgia, 12-1 or 11-2 Penn State, 11-1 Notre Dame, and 10-2 Ohio State.

• The following Auto Bids are locks for the CFP.  11-2 Arizona State or Iowa State as the Big 12 champion, and 12-1 Boise State or 11-2 UNLV as the Mountain West champion.  What is clear here is that the Big 12 schools out resume the Mountain West schools by a LARGE margin.  There is no question who should be ahead in line for a bye should SMU win the ACC and take a top 4 seed.  Even Clemson at 10-3 would out rank the Mountain West champs by a substantial margin in the race for a CFP bye.

• The following At Large teams are virtually locks given their historical committee rankings and Head-to-Head results, even if they do not have playoff supported resumes.  10-2 Tennessee and 11-1 Indiana.  Indiana, despite the poor raw resume, rates highly on team strength and is likely to remain in the playoffs having been inside the cut line and with teams ahead losing this past weekend.  Tennessee likewise has been well within the cut line and holds a Head-to-Head win over Alabama serving as the trump card to inclusion.

• This leaves two CFP positions open.  One will be filled by the ACC champion.  Should that champion be SMU, there is a strong chance it’ll be 9-3 Alabama taking the final CFP position.  In the event that Clemson wins the ACC, the resume data supports Alabama surpassing SMU by a narrow margin.  Working in Alabama’s favor is the South Carolina win over Clemson this past weekend, the hypothetical Clemson over SMU result this coming weekend, and Alabama’s Head-to-Head win over South Carolina earlier this year.  There is a chance SMU remains in the CFP under this scenario, but the data doesn’t support that result, and in the past the committee has made boundary decisions that agree with the resume data we track.

• The open question this week will be in regards to Miami’s positioning.  As the non-ACC champion, Miami cannot elevate past teams ranked ahead on Tuesday, but Miami also lost to two teams SMU did not play this year, so if SMU also took a second loss and the committee favored Miami over SMU, that creates a legitimate debate between Miami and Alabama.  This debate probably also goes to Alabama, but it’s a discussion the committee will certainly have this week.  We’ll have an answer on Miami’s potential path on Tuesday when they are either ahead of or behind Alabama.

Let’s take a look at the Week 14 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• Pundits and reporters have wondered when the time is right for Notre Dame to surpass Penn State in the rankings.  Until this weekend, Penn State has remained ahead, supported by their overall resume.  When data changes our narrative changes, and where we’d have argued in the past for Penn State to remain ahead, this is the time to finally elevate the Fighting Irish into the #3 position behind Texas and Oregon.

• While we’re at it, it’s time to elevate Georgia ahead of Ohio State and Penn State as well.  Ohio State deserves to drop in the rankings after the shocking loss to Michigan, but there is no resume supported argument to elevate Penn State ahead, and that’s ignoring the Head-to-Head result earlier this season in favor of the Buckeyes.  Georgia meanwhile survived a HUGE scare to Georgia Tech, and the strength rating took a hit as a result, but the Bulldogs still have the 2nd best raw resume in the country and should slide ahead of the Big Ten teams this week.

• You could throw a small blanket over the resumes of the CFP boundary teams this weekend and have all of Miami, Iowa State, Indiana, BYU, Ole Miss, and Arizona State covered.  Indiana is going to make the playoffs over these other boundary teams, but the resume data won’t support that selection.  Indiana may rate as the 8th strongest team in the country and ahead of these other contenders in the computer ratings, but the raw resume data tells us that Indiana has not demonstrated that strength against good teams this year.  Michigan’s win over Ohio State did really help the cause, but 5-7 UCLA remains the 2nd best win on the season for the Hoosiers.  There is a lot of value in demonstrating strength against quality teams, and that’s something Indiana simply has not had an opportunity to do this season.

• One more item we’ll call attention to is the misunderstanding of resumes for the 3-loss teams that the committee has ranked or not ranked.  While Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss are not a surprise at the front of the 3-loss order, seeing Colorado ahead of Clemson will come as a shock to some.  Meanwhile, further down the list, Illinois is well behind many of the 4-loss teams, both on team strength and raw resume.  Teams such as LSU, Louisville, Texas A&M, Kansas State, and even Baylor and Texas Tech should all rank higher than Illinois.  Also, don’t be too surprised by the 5-loss teams in our top 25.  In the modern era of conference realignment, there are going to be some good teams that take a lot of losses and still win enough meaningful games to build a solid resume.  Michigan and Florida are examples of those types of teams.

Now let’s take a look at the conference championship games:

Top Game:

• This week we have a collection of what should be great games, but the headliner is Oregon and Penn State vying for the Big Ten title and potentially the #1 overall seed in the CFP. The loser of this game is not guaranteed to earn the coveted #5 seed, with Notre Dame near by to potentially take that position, so this is a meaningful game for playoff seeding.

• Like Oregon and Penn State, Texas vs Georgia is effectively a CFP game already in that the winner moves on to the second round. The loser will get a mulligan in the first round against another tough opponent, but this is a big opportunity to advance in the CFP and get additional rest for the second round.

• Iowa State vs Arizona State serves as a play in game, and while the committee may be tempted to seed the winner in the 12 slot, by our resume data the winner here should also earn a bye ahead of the Mountain West champion, though the loser of this game will not be afforded the mulligan that the Big Ten and SEC loser will, meaning that this is effectively a CFP first round game.

• As with Iowa State and Arizona State, the loser amongst Boise State and UNLV is certainly out of the CFP, meaning we have another effective playoff game on Friday night for the Mountain West title.

• The game with the most implications for those needing an At Large bid to the playoffs is the ACC title game featuring SMU and Clemson.  The Tigers are a potential bid stealer in this scenario, with a team like Alabama the most likely to be dropped if Clemson wins.  Don’t be so certain that SMU is in with a loss though.  There is a chance this too is effectively a first round CFP game.

That’s all we have for the Week 14.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)