2024 Week 13 CFP Resume Rankings!

Welcome to the 2024 Week 13 College Football Playoff Resume Rankings!

We are in the home stretch with only 2 weeks to go before Selection Sunday.  The CFP race is taking shape as contending teams fight to remain above water in the At Large race, and conference title races continue to evolve with Auto Bids on the line.  The reality of counting losses is kicking in for those projecting the playoffs, now asking whether or not a 3-loss team might be worthy as several contenders drop their 3rd game of the season.  For others, questions about resume and strength of schedule are at play, with the committee left in the unenviable position of having to defend contradiction after contradiction in each of the weekly rankings.  Throughout the process, we’ve heard the committee simply say “We watch the games” when asked whether they prefer strength metrics or strength of record.  This get out of jail free card allows the committee to contradict themselves in what would otherwise be a preference toward strength or raw resume in the evaluation of any single team.  Still, there is often an easy data explanation that supports the committee evaluations, even with the inconsistencies.  There are also inconsistencies with public perception.  For instance, there was a prevalent narrative last week challenging the strength of record for Penn State and Texas, both of whom sit at 10-1 now with what appear to be questionable resumes.  Who is Penn State’s big win?  Illinois?  Who else?  What about Texas, none of the Longhorn’s opponents are currently ranked outside of Georgia, who embarrassed Texas in Austin earlier this season.  The reality is that the Nittany Lions and Longhorns have the 3rd and 5th best raw resume in the country right now.  Why?  They have beaten a lot of good, though not great, teams.  As we saw this past weekend, wins over teams like Oklahoma, Florida, Kansas, and Auburn are not guaranteed wins.  Those games still have value, and when you win a lot of them, that value adds up.  When counter-arguments are presented, like a Georgia, the response is that playing harder games and losing more of them can still also build a great resume.  This is where the committee goes astray, because Georgia currently carries the 2nd strongest raw resume.  It doesn’t mean that Penn State and Texas are invalidated, but it does mean that pure win/loss record is not the only path to a great resume.  Playing harder games creates more opportunity to overcome an extra loss, and that’s something the new expanded playoff and recent conference realignment will continue to highlight in future years.

Quick Hitters:

• The hyped matchup between Ohio State and Indiana went about as expected for those tracking these teams by the data.  The Buckeyes translated special teams mistakes into critical points in the first half, and a stifling defensive performance allowed Ohio State to separate as the game went on.  It reminds us of an F1 race, where the pole sitter and clear dominant car is passed coming off the grid, but after a few laps pulls ahead of the leader, separating to a comfortable gap, and cruises from there to an easy win.  The questions will come.  Is Indiana worthy of a playoff bid despite the tough loss?  By the resume data, honestly, it’s questionable.  The argument for Indiana will have to prominently feature strength rating data where Indiana rates currently as the 10th strongest team.  With only 7 teams earning At Large bids, and with Boise State and the Big 12 champion well outside of the top 10, that puts Indiana as the last team in.  On overall resume, Indiana falls further behind due to the lack of raw resume value.  The narrative will be there, and expect Indiana to remain in, but if they are on the boundary that positioning will be supported by the data.

• Penn State is still in a comfortable position for the CFP, but Minnesota was way too close for comfort late in that game.  A 26-25 win is not likely to change the opinion of committee members who see Penn State as the #4 team, and by the data they continue to hold the 4th strongest overall resume amongst teams with 1 or fewer losses.  Maryland should not present many challenges, and a win this week should secure a CFP bid.  With losses elsewhere this past weekend, Penn State may already be a CFP lock.

• No longer safe for the CFP are a trio of now 3-loss SEC teams after taking shocking upsets this weekend.  First, Ole Miss fell in Gainesville to the Florida Gators in a game Ole Miss had little business losing according to net success rate.  Then Alabama got smashed by Oklahoma with the Sooners pulling out a brilliant defensive performance to hold the Tide to only 3 points (aided by a phantom receiver covered penalty against Alabama).  Then, in a 2-point conversion shootout, Texas A&M dropped the ball both figuratively and literally against Auburn.  Texas A&M has almost certainly removed themselves from the At Large bids, though a win over Texas would send the Aggies to the SEC title game where they can still win their way into the CFP.  Alabama’s loss was perhaps the most damaging, not because of the opponent, but because of the uncompetitive nature of the result.  By overall resume, Alabama should actually still be not only in the conversation, but actually in the CFP, however, the committee will almost certainly send them into the mid-teens where they’ll need some chaos ahead to sneak into the playoffs.  The elevation of South Carolina could serve as a buffer that keeps Alabama in the picture, even if just barely.  Ole Miss is in a tough spot now, with a win over Georgia still supporting a strong ranking, and with the computer models still loving the Rebels (SP+ as an example has Ole Miss at #2 this week).  Still, the committee can’t help themselves but to look at the count of losses, which puts Ole Miss behind the 8-ball, and some of those losses were not great.  Like with Alabama, domination of South Carolina may serve as a buffer, but we saw last week with SMU and BYU that head-to-head does not always apply, even when teams hold equal records and rank near each other.  Odds are none of these teams make the CFP, and if/when they don’t this will have been the week where their bubbles finally burst for good.

• In the Big 12, a trio of games have set the table for an all-out brawl just to keep playoff hopes as an Auto Bid Champion alive.  Arizona State led off with a brilliant performance against BYU, opening a huge lead early that proved to be too much for the cardiac Cougars to overcome.  BYU fought valiantly to close the gap, but the comeback effort, like the last play Hail Mary, came up just barely short.  Elsewhere in conference play, the hottest team in the conference nabbed another title contender in Colorado.  Of the 9 teams with a mathematical chance to play for the conference title with 1 week to go, the Kansas Jayhawks are not amongst them.  Still, the gauntlet Kansas has now run is nothing short of miraculous, with wins over Iowa State, BYU, and now Colorado.  The Buffs now need 2/3 of Arizona State, Iowa State, and BYU to lose, or very specific tiebreaks, just to play for the conference title.  Meanwhile, Iowa State nearly blew their chances at Utah, needing a late touchdown to survive the preseason Big 12 favorites and remain in contention for the Big 12 title and CFP bid.

• The last quick hitter touches on Boise State, who escaped again when playing a definitively lesser opponent, this time 2-9 Wyoming in a 17-13 road win.  What will the committee make of these recent results?  It’s hard to say.  Boise State is the litmus test for fair evaluation at this point, with the Broncos not rating as one of the 25 strongest teams and not carrying a top 25 raw resume.  Who is the strongest G5 team right now?  It’s not the Broncos.  It’s actually Tulane, rating as the 19th strongest team in the country.  Boise State still has the trump card of playing Oregon close in an early season game, but if the committee actually watches the games as they purport to do, this squad has not played to the caliber of a team that should be a lock for the CFP.

Let’s take a look at the Week 13 CFP Resume Rankings (note: these ranking should mirror a fair CFP committee):

Notes on the CFP Resume Rankings:

• There is a good chance that the order of 1-loss teams looks exactly like the resume rankings above, with Ohio State followed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami, SMU, Indiana, then Boise State.  What needs to change?  The committee needs to reassess Boise State following another clunker against a bad Wyoming team.  SMU should have already been ahead of Boise State, and if the committee fairly reevaluates the Broncos they should slide to the back of the line.  As for Indiana, the blowout loss to Ohio State was bad enough that we’ll likely see the Hoosiers fall at least behind Miami.  Per the strength ratings we track, Indiana could have an argument to rank narrowly ahead of SMU, but by the full resume the Mustangs have a great argument to slide ahead.

• The positioning of Clemson and South Carolina will be pivotal to either team having an opportunity to win their way into the CFP picture this weekend.  Clemson has been elevated in the current rankings, but a dominant win over the Gamecocks could boost their overall resume well into CFP contention.  For South Carolina, the question coming will be whether or not the Cocks can slide ahead of either of Alabama or Ole Miss, both of whom have beaten South Carolina and both of whom have better overall resumes.

• Who has an argument for the CFP right now?  The following 9 teams rate both as a top 12 team on computer strength and have a top 12 raw resume:

  • Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Penn State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, SMU

• Let’s assume that 8 of the 9 teams are in, removing Alabama from the list, that would leave 2 additional bids for the CFP with the G5 and Big 12 champions taking the final 2 bids.  Who has an argument for the last two spots?

  • Team Strength Top 12:  Indiana (10th), Tennessee (11th)

  • Raw Resume Top 12:  BYU (6th), Arizona State (7th), LSU (10th)

• Given the committee preference for strength over raw resume, it seems clear that Indiana and Tennessee are likely to fill out the CFP this week.  With Tennessee holding the Head-to-Head win over Alabama, it’s pretty clear at this point that the Tide, despite their strength and raw resume ratings, are going to be on the outside looking in.  Without any major upsets there’s a good chance that the above group will fill all of the At Large selections in the CFP.  We’ll be back next week to talk through all of the specific scenarios and how they may impact the CFP selection process throughout championship weekend.

• Why do we show Arizona State as the Big 12 champion at the moment?  Our procedure thus far has been to select the top resume amongst the teams that are tied for the conference lead.  Usually this is because these teams control their own destiny to play for their conference title games.  In the Big 12, amazingly, there is not a single team that controls their own destiny with 1 week to play.  As such, we are reflecting Arizona State as the champ given they have the most potential paths to play in the conference title game, albeit narrowly over BYU and Iowa State.

• Not only does Indiana sit behind 3-loss Alabama and Ole Miss at this point, if you look closely you’ll notice that the Hoosiers only sit 0.01 rating points ahead of 3-loss South Carolina in the overall resume ratings.  When we mentioned that Indiana could be on the bubble this week, the data does in fact support that.

Unexpected results from Week 13 after adjusting for our updated Composite Team Strength Rating

• This week’s biggest upset honors go to the Oklahoma Sooners, who we would project as 10.5-point underdogs in a rematch this weekend.  The brilliant performance from the Sooners capped a week full of meaningful results, including Kansas over Colorado, Florida over Ole Miss, and Auburn over Texas A&M.

• The second biggest upset of the weekend goes to the Arizona State students, who rushed the field twice against BYU, both before and after a failed Hail Mary attempt.  Later in the day, the Oklahoma Sooners pulled off the same feat, doing so with 28 seconds still on the clock and an extra play to go.  Any time you can do something too soon, and complete that action sooner than the Sooners that definitely qualifies as an upset!  Congratulations to Arizona State!

With our resume rankings setting a 12-team CFP, who has the best odds to win the title?

• This week’s hypothetical bracket depends on a reevaluation of Boise State as well as the exclusion of both Alabama and Ole Miss for having too many losses.  The bracket also captures Arizona State as the Big 12 champion, even though Iowa State currently carries a better team strength rating.  We discussed earlier why we had the Sun Devils in our bracket representing the Big 12.  With the win over Indiana, Ohio State has strengthened their grip on the strongest team strength rating, and a favorable path featuring a weakened Boise State and still improving Arizona State gives Ohio State the strongest Title Odds.  Texas comes in with the 2nd best odds, largely due to avoiding the other strongest 3 teams in the bracket.

• Tough luck this week to Oregon, who faces a likely path of Notre Dame (3rd strongest), Ohio State (1st), and Texas (2nd) to win a National Championship.  Texas in the #2 seed meanwhile likely faces Penn State (8th), Georgia (5th), and Ohio State (1st) to win the title.  Still not easy, but a step ahead of what Oregon faces.

Now let’s highlight a few Week 14 games worth watching

Top Game:

• Only 3 of the top 10 games this week feature teams with legitimately active hopes of earning an At Large CFP bid.  This is because most of the CFP contenders are playing games where they project as double-digit favorites.  The top game this week however features two teams who both hope to win their way into the CFP, with South Carolina projecting to beat Clemson only 50.3% of the time in a true pick ‘em game this weekend.

• Both the 2nd and 3rd best games of the week according to game quality feature Big 12 teams, with Iowa State and Kansas State jumping ahead of the renewal of the Texas/Texas A&M series Saturday evening.  Also ahead of the Longhorns and Aggies on game quality are the two hottest teams in the Big 12, the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks, who meet in Waco with Kansas hoping to complete football’s greatest November gauntlet unbeaten and with Baylor still in the mix for the Big 12 title race.

• While other games have higher game quality scores, the pageantry of renewing an all-time rivalry series will take center stage in the evening, with Texas and Texas A&M serving as a semifinal game in the SEC title race.  The winner of which will get Georgia for a chance at an Auto Bid to the playoff and potentially a top 4 seed.

• For those watching on Friday, there aren’t many great games, though Minnesota and Wisconsin project within a point in a rivalry game.  We are on upset alert both Friday and Saturday and will keep an eye out for any of the 18 teams that project as double-digit favorites with a chance to still shape the CFP picture ahead of conference championship weekend.  It should be a great week!

 That’s all we have for the Week 13.  If you have any questions about the CFP Resume Rankings or just want to follow along come find us @CFPResumeRanks on Twitter/X.  If you would like to officially reference our rankings or partner with us the DMs are always open.  Have a great week everyone!

(Note: For tables instead of pictures of the rankings, see the resume ranking pages)